Monday, December 31, 2007

India Upbeat In Business, Says Survey

Riding on expectations of higher growth, increased inventory levels and greater employment generation, business confidence for the period starting October till end of the current fiscal is upbeat, says a survey by a leading Indian industry chamber.This is much higher than the same survey conducted for the period April-September 2007-08, the survey by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) indicated.

The CII business confidence index (CII-BCI) showed the current situation index (CSI) and expectations index (EI) was higher among non-manufacturing firms as compared to manufacturing firms.As many as 59 per cent of the respondents indicated the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate to be around 9 per cent, while 22 per cent indicated 9 to 9.5 per cent.About 87 per cent of firms expressed plans to increase investment during October March 2007-08 and 59 per cent have revealed capacity utilization in the range of 75 to 100 per cent.

A large number of firms also expressed their decision to increase the value of production. About 66 per cent of the companies surveyed have already increased their scale of production during the first half of 2007-08.All these are expected to generate considerable employment by the second half of the upcoming financial year.

Despite a surging rupee against the weakening dollar, exports would continue to increase. However, the sector continues to face procedural delays, which acts as long-standing hurdle for exporters, which raises transactions costs and needs to be addressed urgently, the chamber said.

Modi Policies Cash Excellent Economics

Narendra Modi''s victory has been ascribed to two factors - an unsubtle exploitation of Hindu communal sentiments and an admirable record of economic development. While the first can be described as the standard defining characteristic of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the second reason is new in Indian politics.

It is also all the more unusual because the growth has been the result of market-friendly policies, marking a sharp departure from the country''s customary, if unrewarding, faith in socialism.The Gujarat chief minister, therefore, can be said to have charted a new course with the potential of setting a trend that can be of immense benefit to the country.The difference between his approach and that of the Manmohan Singh government is that the latter has been diffident about the pro-capitalist economic reforms that Singh initiated as the finance minister in 1991.However, both he and his party, the Congress, have been somewhat apologetic about the endeavour, presumably because it went against the party''s policy of establishing a socialistic pattern of society, enunciated in 1955.

Their sense of having done something wrong and even harmful was accentuated by the Congress''s 1996 defeat that was ascribed by the socialists in the organisation to Singh''s pro-rich and pro-business economic reforms.This point of view was strengthened in the Left-oriented political class by the defeat of the Andhra Pradesh chief minister Chandrababu Naidu, who had also tried to break away from the usual public sector- and subsidy-based approach to the economic scene. While the private sector was shunned by this group of politicians because of its profit-oriented attitude, free power for the farmers and a wide range subsidies - whether fertilisers or food grains - were their mantra for electoral success, notwithstanding the well-known resultant wastage.

India Inc''s Business Confidence Rises

India Inc''s business confidence has improved for October-March 2007-08 (H2) after a decline during April-September 2007, according to CII''s business outlook survey. Nevertheless, the business confidence still remains lower than the corresponding period last year.

CII''s business confidence index for October-March this fiscal, at 66.3, saw an increase of 2.4 points from April-September 2007. However, the index was down by 5.5 points when compared to the corresponding period last year. Business confidence, constructed as a weighted average of the Current Situation Index (CSI) and the Expectations Index (EI), was higher among services (68.3) compared with manufacturing firms (65.1), the CII survey noted. CSI, which indicates current business conditions, increased marginally by 0.2 points for October-March against the previous six months. However, when compared to the corresponding period last year, it was down by 6.3 points, reflecting a decrease in current business sentiments. EI, which reflects the perceptions of Indian industry with regards to performance of their company, sector and the Indian economy for the period October-March, gained 3.5 points over the first half of the current fiscal, reflecting higher expectations in terms of performance during the second half of 2007-08. However, the EI is down by 5 points when compared to the second half of the last fiscal, reflecting lower growth expectations of GDP and other aggregates during 2007-08, CII said.

About 59% of the respondents in the CII survey said they expected the GDP growth in 2007-08 to be approximately 9%, with around 22% of them expecting it to be in the range 9-9.5%. Also, 87% of the respondents said they planned to increase investments during the second half of the current fiscal. Around 59% of the respondents also said capacity utilisation for October-March this fiscal would be in the range 75-100%.

Govt Likely To Do Away With TDS On Co Bonds

New Delhi: The finance ministry may announce the abolition of tax deducted at source (TDS) on corporate bonds in Budget 2008-09, the source said. The move is expected to stoke the near-dormant secondary market in corporate bonds by bringing them on a par with government securities (G-Secs). TDS on G-Secs was abolished in 2000, a move that had a positive impact on secondary trading in these bonds.

The proposal was discussed at a recent meeting at North Block, which was attended by representatives of regulators such as the Securities and Exchange Board of India, the Reserve Bank of India and the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority. The finance ministry''s revenue department had initially not been keen to extend the TDS break to corporate bonds on grounds that it would raise the risk of tax evasion since a large number of unorganised retail investors invest in corporate bonds. TDS has been a major irritant in the corporate bond market because it is not uniformly applicable to all investors, making it difficult to trade bonds between the two classes of bond-holders. For instance, insurance companies and mutual funds are exempt from TDS whereas others are not. The proposal to scrap TDS on corporate bonds is in line with the growing demands from policy planners in the interest of creating a liquid bond market. It was a key recommendation of the 2005 RH Patil committee on corporate bonds and securitisation and was seconded by the Deepak Parekh committee on infrastructure financing in its May 2007 report.

In May 2007, the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2007, was passed to provide a legal framework for securitised debt trading. The trading platform for corporate bonds at major exchanges started from July 1.

Chidambaram Expects More Bids For IFCI

India''s finance minister on Dec 29 backed state-run lender IFCI''s decision to reject a bid from a consortium of Sterlite Industries and Morgan Stanley and said he expected more offers to come in when the bidding process starts again.We got a single bid, a conditional bid. Therefore, IFCI rejected the single, conditional bid. And in my view that''s a correct decision, Palaniappan Chidambaram told reporters on the sidelines of an event in Bangalore.IFCI Ltd''s shares had plunged more than 23 percent on Dec. 20 after its board turned down an offer from the consortium led by Sterlite Industries to buy a 26 percent stake.The shares have dropped more than 18 percent since IFCI announced the rejection of the bid, but are still up 575 percent this year.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

India Inc To Have Easier M&A Ride

NEW DELHI: The government has decided to simplify the norms for mergers and acquisitions by removing the bottlenecks that slow down India Inc’s inorganic growth. The idea is to offer a fast-track system which will spare companies from the lengthy process of securing high court sanctions for M&As, if they meet certain criteria.

The ministry of corporate affairs is working on two types of fast-track clearances for M&As. The first one is a new concept called ‘contractual mergers’. Under this, companies needn’t wait for the high court approval, which will take at least six months to materialise.

This proposal, originally mooted by a panel headed by eminent lawyer Shardul Shroff and later endorsed by the JJ Irani panel on company law, will get legal recognition soon, officials said. The second proposal is a simplified procedure for M&As between group companies and unrelated private companies.

Under the contractual merger plan, companies can decide to merge through a contract which should be approved by the shareholders later. Such a window is available in many other countries. Currently, all private sector companies need to get the approval of high courts for M&A activities, while state-run companies have to obtain the government approval.

These clearances will not come before certain agencies — official liquidators attached to high courts as well as regional directors and registrars of companies — certify that the companies were not run in a way prejudicial to public interest. The whole process takes a long time. This form of mergers will have some built-in restrictions, which will be spelt out in the new company law.

The new norms for M&As between group companies will cover mergers between a parent and a subsidiary as well as mergers between two unrelated private companies where public interest is minimal. The logic is that if outsiders are not involved, it is unfair to subject the internal matter of a group or of two private companies to the rigours of an elaborate process designed for public limited companies where the public and other stakeholders are involved.

The new merger norms for these entities will also be listed in the new company law. “Now, with the strong regulatory emphasis on compliance, a lot of groups are merging their arms to lower the cost of compliance. These days, many companies are looking at a compact and simple structure, which is easy to manage,” said an official.

The fast-track merger code is in addition to the government’s plan to introduce the concept of deemed approvals, which ET had recently reported. Under this, approval will be presumed to have been granted by various regulators beyond a particular time.

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Hydro Power Policy May End Tariff-Based Bidding

NEW DELHI: The government has decided to give exemption to private developers from tariff-based bidding for a period up to January 2011. So far, the exemption was available to only public sector companies. The move is aimed at attracting private investments in the sector.

The exemption proposed by the power ministry as part of the new hydro policy, expected to be cleared by the Cabinet soon. “A Cabinet note in this regard has been approved with comments by other ministries and it is in the final stage of drafting,” an official said.

“Tariff-based competitive bidding can not be undertaken for hydro projects in the country due to high levels of uncertainties arising out of construction risks, adverse geological conditions, delays in land acquisition, natural calamities, among other things. Keeping these things in mind, it has been proposed to exempt all the companies from tariff-based bidding in this regard,” an official in the power ministry said.

The Tariff Policy 2006 has proposed that all future procurement of power by utilities will have to be made through a process of tariff based bidding. It has, however, exempted central and state PSUs from the provisions.

Private sector projects would also now enjoy a similar waiver as the policy has proposed that tariffs for such projects would also be determined on cost plus basis by the appropriate regulatory commissions under the section 62 of the Electricity Act.

The exemption would be applicable to only such private developers who obtain the approval of the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), sign power purchase agreements with the distribution companies or licensees and achieve financial closure before January 2011.

Tariff-based bidding, however, would be applicable for all projects to be awarded after 2011. The bidding has already become a norm for thermal power projects. While the policy has proposed booster in the form of exemption from tariff based bidding for next four years, it has put additional responsibility on the developers to bear the cost for getting land allocated for the project.

This additional expenditure would also not form part of the project cost or tariff. However, as a relief the policy has proposed a special incentive by way of up to 40% of saleable energy being permitted for trade as merchant sales.

CLB May Replace BIFR As Healer

NEW DELHI: The government is planning to amend the Sick Industrial Companies Repeal Act to enable revival as well as liquidation of sick units easy. The move aims at bringing an alternative system for restructuring of ailing companies after the proposal for setting up of a tribunal could not take off.

Under the proposed system, the Board for Industrial and Financial Reconstruction (BIFR), the body that presides over corporate revival, will be wound up and the power would shift to the Company Law Board (CLB), a judicial body. CLB resolves disputes between corporates and promoters involving cases of mismanagement and oppression.

The government will also set up more benches of CLB at different cities. The ministry of corporate affairs will also empower itself with the freedom to appoint new members. The power to hear appeals of CLB’s decisions on reconstruction and liquidation will rest with various high courts under the new system.

At present, this power is vested with the Appellate Authority for Industrial and Financial Reconstruction (AAIFR). Under the transitional system, high courts will continue to preside over mergers and acquisitions, while the central government will exercise this power in the case of public sector companies.

The government had earlier enacted the Sick Industrial Companies Repeal Act of 2003 to wind up BIFR and replace it with the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT). However, this has not been notified because setting up NCLT was getting delayed due to litigation. Now, to bring in the interim arrangement, this Act will again be amended.

The new system will remain in place till the time the government sets up the NCLT and an appellate body to deal with all corporate processes like mergers, acquisitions, restructure and liquidation. That will not happen immediately as the government has to wait till the Supreme Court decides on a petition challenging the constitutional validity of these two proposed entities.

A constitutional bench of the apex court is examining the case. NCLT and its appellate tribunal would be designed as sophisticated platforms where corporate houses could get swift time-bound approvals for various activities.

India Inc Raises Over Rs 45,000 Cr In Ipos, Follow-Ons In 2007

New Delhi: Marking the highest mobilisation in a single year, Indian companies are pegged to have mopped up Rs 45,062 crore via initial public offerings (IPOs) and follow-on public offerings (FPOs) during 2007, almost 85 per cent more than last year. While over 100 IPOs grossed close to Rs 34,134 crore this year, six FPOs during the year raked-in another Rs 10,927 crore. About 45 per cent of the total IPO mobilisation came from the realty sector, this year. As many as 12 companies from the real estate domain got listed and 11 of those saw huge premiums after listing. This shows markets'' appetite for good real estate firms. Interestingly, the average size of the IPOs in 2007 increased to Rs 350 crore against about Rs 260 crore in the previous year. It may be called back that fuelled by DLF''s mega public issue of Rs 9,187.5 crore, the total IPO mop-up in June had exceeded all expectations garnering close to Rs 11,906 crore, while the FPOs had garnered another Rs 10,570 crore. The IPO realisations in January stood at about Rs 2,786 crore, in February at Rs 4,503 crore, and in March at about Rs 460 crore. India Inc raised Rs 682.5 crore in April and Rs 494 crore in the following month. The realisation in July had been estimated at Rs 3,603 crore, in August Rs 666.57 crore, in September Rs 3891 crore. October and November grossed Rs 268.85 crore and Rs 3393.20 crore, respectively.

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Pundits Sell Recoupling Story As Market See-Saws

MUMBAI: Equity market mandarins from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley first proposed the theory of decoupling, an economic state, wherein equity markets exist without correlating itself with other markets or insulated from external factors. The theory was new, zesty and there was no reason why one should not buy the theory.

But as December rolled in with fears of an US slowdown; credit collapse; sub-prime worries and a falling dollar, proponents of the decoupling theory are astutely debunking their claims.

Barely a couple of weeks ago, desi equity analysts were vocal about India decoupling from world markets. Now, with the home market toeing the global line, the decoupling theory appears to be fast losing ground. The new theory is — no market can stay insulated from global pressures.

The need to switch theories took flight when Morgan Stanley chief Stephen Roach recently said: “Decoupling is a good story, but it’s not going to work going forward.” Goldman Sachs economist Peter Berezin coined a new term and said the “Year 2008 will be the year of recoupling”.

“Analysts across the world are not expecting decoupling now. If growth in the US slows down, Japan, Europe and China would be badly hit. If China is hit, it will rock emerging Asian markets Korea, Taiwan, Philippines and Indonesia. India would also be marginally impacted,” said ICICI Bank private banking global research head G Ramachandran.

Of the 38 monitored countries, Goldman economists expect growth to slacken in 26 and strengthen in a dozen economies. This, according to reports, will cause global growth to slowdown from 4.7% to 4% next year.

Deutsche Asset Management’s investment specialist Bill Barbour maintains that there is nothing as decoupling of markets. “Everyone talks about decoupling of the US economy with Asian economies. Now, that’s a remote happening. Even if it does, the US still accounts for a huge amount of growth. If the US slows down, it will impact all other economies,” Mr Barbour says.

“If the US GDP comes down in the range of 1.5% to 1.7%, there is very little chance of decoupling. If the decline is more, every market would be impacted. Decoupling happens in specific zones, it is not across markets phenomenon,” says Credit Suisse Securities’ research head Nilesh Jasani.

In case of sub-prime credit defaults, the initial impact was thought to be only on the US economy. But from what experts feel now, sub-prime credit is more of a high-credit condition, moving across different markets and economies. Essentially, the US accounts for one-third of the world GDP and 14% of the world trade and hence is important.

“The Indian market has a higher integration on account of fund flows. However, despite the US economy slowing down, the world GDP growth has held up nicely above 5%, led by emerging markets and Asian economies.

In the strict sense, emerging markets might not decouple, but will certainly diverge from the American market. This could be one reason why emerging markets have not caught cold, despite the US sneeze,” said Enam Securities’ economist Sachchidanand Shukla.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Capital Gains: Blue-Chip Psus May Pay Bonus

NEW DELHI: It’s party time for investors who have remained invested in public sector companies. The government plans to ask blue-chip PSUs including NTPC, BHEL, SAIL, ONGC, IOC, BPCL, HPCL and Gail to issue bonus shares, as their reserves and surplus have increased to several times their paid-up capital.

The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) may issue a directive to PSUs having paid-up capital over Rs 100 crore to consider issuance of bonus shares.

“The department of public enterprises (DPE) has prepared a list of 75 PSUs, including about two-dozen listed companies that are sitting on huge reserves and surplus. Companies are shying away from issuing bonus shares. As the final decision is with the administrative ministries, DPE plans to take the PMO’s help to direct PSUs to issue bonus shares. PMO would intervene in case of such companies where paid-up capital would be Rs 100 crore or more,” a government official said.

According to official guidelines in place for public sector enterprises (PSEs), they should issue bonus shares to its shareholders if their reserves are in excess of three times their paid-up capital.

While retail shareholders of listed public sector companies stand to gain, the major beneficiary would be the government, the largest shareholder. Oil companies are currently reluctant to issue bonus shares even though IOC’s reserve and surplus are 29 times (Rs 33,365 crore) its paid-up capital (Rs 1,168 crore).

In case of HPCL, it is 28 times (reserves Rs 9,260 crore, paid-up capital Rs 339 crore), BPCL 27 times (reserves Rs 9,912 crore, paid-up capital Rs 362 crore), and ONGC 28 times (reserves Rs 59,785 crore, paid-up capital Rs 2,139 crore). Oil companies, suffering due to massive under-recoveries, lack the confidence to issue bonus shares.

“In the current market scenario, there is no certainty regarding revenue streams and therefore, issuance of bonus shares might result in reduction in dividend yield to the shareholders,” IOC chairman S Behuria told DPE.

But officials in the petroleum ministry as well as ministry of heavy industry and public enterprises do not buy this logic. “Most of the companies are sitting on huge reserves and they are not suffering from global oil-price hike. The shareholders must be appropriately rewarded,” an official in the petroleum ministry said.

PSU officials, especially from blue chip companies, consider the bonus share move an encroachment on their autonomy. Government officials do not agree.

“The government has vested the board of the navratna and mini-ratna companies with the final authority on the bonus issue. But this clause is applicable only as long as the companies have the stipulated number of independent directors on their board. Most of them do not meet this criterion,” a source in DPE said.

If the companies do not have the stipulated number of independent directors on their board, the government has right to intervene in their decision-making process.

World Bank Approves $225 Mn Loan To Bihar

WASHINGTON: The World Bank has approved a $225 million loan to Bihar aimed to support the state in implementing reforms in fiscal policy, public financial management, and governance in order to boost economic growth.

"While India has emerged as one of the fastest growing countries in the world, it faces the challenge of addressing widening economic disparities. Bihar is the poorest state in India with about 39 per cent of population living in poverty," The Bank said in a statement.

The First Bihar Development Policy Loan is designed to improve fiscal policy, public financial management and governance.

"It aims to boost economic growth through reforms in agriculture, investment climate, and basic infrastructure, with an emphasis on roads. It will also support improving public service delivery in education and social protection," it said.

"Bihar is a crucial state for poverty reduction and inclusive growth in India," said Isabel Guerrero, World Bank Country Director for India.

Bihar registered the economic growth of 4 per cent in recent years which is much slower than the rest of the country, while the state has 8.5 per cent of India's population, it accounts for only 1.6 per cent of the country's GDP.

"It is India's poorest as well as one of its slowest growing states. But with arable land, water resources, favorable demography, and unexploited tourism potential, Bihar has the necessary preconditions to accelerate development. By focusing on accelerating growth and improving public service delivery, this operation will assist Bihar towards achieving the development goals set out in its Eleventh Plan," she added.

Bengal CM Feels The Need For Fresh Look At SEZ Policy

New Delhi: West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee strongly feels that the policy on the zones needs to be reviewed. He has called for a need to limit the number of sectors eligible for setting up Special Economic Zones (SEZs). Speaking at the National Development Council meeting held here, Bhattacharjee said that Industry groups to be covered under the scheme should be identified in the first instance instead of extending it to all and sundry.

At present, there is no limitation on any industrial sector to set up the tax free zones. The government has formally approved 232 SEZs. In addition, 172 have received in-principle approvals. Bhattacharjee''s statement comes against the backdrop of widespread unrest in West Bengal over land acquisition for industrial projects. Significantly, the state has 16 formally approved SEZs while an equal number have got in-principle approvals. Bhattacharjee also vouched for upper limit on the area of SEZs. Currently, there is a 5,000 hectare cap on the maximum area of the zones.

Recently, speaking at the India Economic Summit, Commerce Secretary Gopal Pillai had said that the maximum area on the SEZs could be relaxed according to implementation of the new Relief and Rehabilitation policy and the amended Land Acquisition Act. The CM also called for proper demarcation of processing and non-processing areas within a zone. The present SEZ Rules mandate 50 per cent of the area to be used as processing zone.

Centre Asks States To Help Exporters

Having already given three packages worth Rs 5,200 crore to rupee-hit exporters, the Centre asked state governments to help out the exporting community. The Centre has already given packages to exporters, now states should come forward to compensate the affected export sectors, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said at the 54th meeting of the National Development Council.

Besides giving some incentives to exporters, he said states should also initiate measures to improve functioning of the public distribution scheme. The Centre has to spend Rs 3.56 to given Re one benefit under PDS. Finance Secretary D Subbarao said the Finance Minister suggested that states could refund state-level taxes to the exporting community. The Finance Minister said in the long run, states will also benefit from exports, according to Subbarao. Earlier in his inaugural address, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sounded a note of caution on the possible impact of global slowdown, saying that it may impact India''s exports and capital flows.Our economy is increasingly integrated into the global economy with the external sector now accounting for almost 40 per cent of the GDP and hence, we cannot be fully immune to international developments, the Prime Minister said.

Kerala Chief Minister V S Achutanandan said the rupee appreciation is badly affecting exports of agriculture commodities from the states. The rupee appreciation has brought about loss of markets and closure a host of small units with serious adverse consequences for employment, he said. Achutanandan suggested that the Centre should form a council with representatives from the Union Government and states to supervise monetary, export and trade policies. The Indian currency has risen more than 12 per cent against the dollar in 2007, eroding margins of goods and services exporters.

Corporate Tax Revenues Grow 42.37 Pc In Apr-Dec 15

New Delhi: India Inc is likely to continue to show robust growth in profits even this fiscal going by the corporate taxes collected so far by the Centre. The latest data released by the Finance Ministry on Tuesday showed that the corporate tax collections registered a 42.37 per cent increase in April-December 15 to Rs 98,391 crore as compared to collections of Rs 69,110 crore in the same period last year. For fiscal 2007-08, the Centre has pegged the budget estimate for corporate tax collections at Rs 1,68,401 crore. Official sources also said that the latest data on corporate tax revenues does not fully reflect the advance tax collections that may come in under the December 15 instalment and that the final picture on advance tax front would emerge only later this week.

The data available from certain metros show that some of the top private sector companies in the industrial and financial services space have even doubled their advance tax outgo for the December 15 instalment. According to sources, real estate major DLF has paid Rs 570 crore as advance tax for the third instalment that was due on December 15. The company had paid Rs 480 crore in the first instalment (June 15) and Rs 520 crore in the second instalment (September 15). For the December 15 instalment, sources said that SBI had paid Rs 1,095 crore as advance tax, the figure for Reliance Industries and ICICI stood at Rs 1,045 crore and Rs 500 crore, respectively.

India Will Exceed 9% Growth

India is likely to exceed a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of nine per cent by end of fiscal 2007-08, Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said on Dec 18. India''s growth rate is expected to exceed nine per cent despite rising oil prices, appreciation of the rupee (against the dollar), and high interest rates, Nath said in New Delhi.

On the issue of the rising rupee adversely affecting exports, Nath said: We are looking at various mechanisms, such as reimbursing state levies and taxes (to exporters). We are also looking at other kinds of sops. Due to rising rupee, which has surged by almost 15 per cent in the last 12 months, exports, especially of textiles, leather, handicrafts and marine products, are facing job losses. There have been 120,000 job losses (both direct and indirect), the minister said.

Textile exports have come down by about 22 per cent, handicrafts exports have declined 66 per cent, marine products 20 per cent and leather nine percent, according to ministry officials. Nath, who earlier during the day met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the meeting of the Council on Trade and Industry, raised the issues facing exporters.

The minister also gave a status report on the inflow of foreign capital into the country.

Inflows are continuing with great momentum. FDI (foreign direct investment) equity inflows during the fiscal 2007-08, as of September 2007, were $7.2 billion, which is a growth of 65 per cent over the same period previous year. Nath also informed the media persons that the 170-member World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO) has endorsed India''s recognition as an International Searching Authority (ISA) and an International Preliminary Examining Authority (IPA).

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

India, China Buying Power Less Than Expected

The economies of India and China are much smaller than previously thought when measured by buying power in US dollars, according to data released on Monday which could weaken their call for more clout at the International Monetary Fund.

The preliminary International Comparison Program report on purchasing power parity - or PPP - was coordinated by the World Bank and based on price data on goods and services in 146 countries, adjusted to reflect local cost and affordability, and converted to dollars.

The report has no bearing on the actual size of those economies, but rather looks at them with a different measuring tool - one that many emerging economies argue is a more accurate representation of their growing global influence since it takes their hefty buying power into account.

Many of those countries want the IMF to take PPP into consideration when allocating voting rights, a contentious issue that is expected to be high on the agenda at the fund's spring meetings in April 2008. An IMF spokesman said there was "growing consensus" that PPP should play a role in determining voting quotas, which would raise the relative weight of developing countries.

"The impact on individual countries depends on the data for them and this new set of PPP data will ensure that any calculations done for PPP purposes will reflect the most up-to-date situation," IMF's William Murray said in an e-mailed response to questions.

PPP is designed to provide an apples-to-apples comparison for the buying power of countries around the world, and also gives insight into the cost of living, consumer spending and investment from country to country. One of the best-known examples is the "Big Mac Index," which compares the cost of the same McDonald's sandwich in different countries.

The report takes data collected by the World Bank, Eurostat and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to calculate each country's PPP for 2005. China's share of the global economy in terms of PPP fell to 9.7 per cent from an estimated 14 per cent.

This was the first time that China participated in the survey, so the prior figure was calculated last year by extrapolating from old data, using a model that has since proved to be faulty.

India's share of the world economy based on PPP dropped to 4.3 per cent from a previous estimate of 6 per cent. This was the first time India had participated in the survey since 1985. "These are changes in estimates, the previous ones having been based on very old and very limited data," the ICP report noted. "The real outputs of their economies have not changed, only the way we measure them has."

POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS

When measured by market exchange rates instead of PPP, China's share of world GDP is just 5 per cent, and India's is less than 2 per cent - about half of their size using PPP. That explains why the report may have political ramifications as fast-growing emerging markets fight for more say at the IMF.

Emerging markets argue that the big industrialized countries have too much influence over the fund, in part because voting rights do not take into account PPP - something they hope will change in the IMF's revised quota system. But because China and India are smaller than previously thought in PPP terms, they may have a harder time winning support for sizeable increases in their voting rights.

Some industrialized countries worry that China and other emerging markets will surpass them in voting power if PPP is taken into consideration. In PPP, China is the world's second- biggest economy, behind only the United States. By market exchange rates, it trails countries such as Japan and Germany.

The report shows that 12 countries account for more than two-thirds of the world's output, including five emerging economies: China, India, Russia, Brazil and Mexico. Overall, the results show that the size of the world economy measured in PPP terms is smaller than previously estimated. Asia's economies are one-third smaller than previously thought, largely because of the downgrades to China and India, while Africa's are one-fourth smaller.

AP Optimistic On Industrial Investment Climate

Hyderabad: During the period 2004-07, the industrial investment in Andhra Pradesh has been of the order of Rs 10,570 crore, with the setting up of 6,092 units. In contrast, the figures for the previous three years (2001-04 during the TDP rule), were Rs 4,524 crore and the number of units opened was 5,046 units. Giving this information, the State Government has claimed that the continuing good performance and investment climate in the State is expected to make it the top destination for investments, ahead of Gujarat, soon.

I have no doubt that AP will surpass Gujarat in industrial infrastructure and investments in a host of leather, textiles, IT, automobile and Bio-technology products, said the Chief Minister, Dr Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, during a review meeting on the progress of SEZs held in the Secretariat today. Mr Reddy said the cement production in the State would go up from the present 29 million tonnes to 33 million tonnes with new investment in the sector. Similarly, the capacity in steel sector will grow phenomenally from 4.5 million tonnes to 18 million tonnes. The turnover in the pharma sector will also increase to Rs 20,000 crore from the present 12,000 crore in the next three years, triggering pharma export to Rs 11,000 crore from the present Rs 7,000 crore. The Chief Minister said the production levels in the textiles sector will almost double in view of the Rs 9,000 crore investments proposed in the coming years. The Principal Secretary (Industries), Mr B. Sam Bob, informed the Chief Minister that 70 SEZs have been approved for the State, of which 46 have already been notified and are being developed over 6,894 hectares at a cost of Rs 32,525 crore.

Of these, 24 SEZs have received in-principle approval and are being set up in 1,250 hectares. On completion of all the projects, the SEZs will generate employment for 25 lakh persons, of which they had already created 10,000 jobs. Multi-product SEZs are being grounded in 5,500 acres near Visakhapatnam and 8,000 acres in Kakinada.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

High Interest Rates Fail To Scar India Inc’s H1 Show

Despite continued concerns of high interest rates, the latest financial results show that India Inc is emerging unscathed from its impact so far. For the half year ended September 2007, interest coverage ratio for Corporate India, excluding banking sector, has gone up from 10.8 to 11.7 times.

Interest coverage is broadly defined as operating profit to interest cost ratio. This means that operating profit generated by India Inc is more than 11 times its interest cost for the half year. It may also be noted that this ratio was only 8.5 times for half year ending September 2004.

The manufacturing sector, which has significant dependence on debt and is more vulnerable to interest rate movement, has improved its interest coverage from 10.1 to 10.8. However, on disaggregated basis, textiles and auto sector have seen a reversal.

While general buoyancy in demand in Indian economy contributes to this, lower input cost has provided the necessary advantage. For the half year, while sales rose by more than 13%, raw material cost rose by only 9%.

But not everyone is convinced. Says Amit Mitra, secretary general, Ficci: “It must be understood that interest payment is not the only expense item that a company has to meet. Besides interest payment, there are several other elements that contribute to the cost of production. The companies also have to reward their shareholders by way of dividend payments.

Moreover, the rising interest rates need to be seen in relation to the investment cost for the firms. An increase in interest rates has an impact on investment plans of companies. Whenever interest rates go up, some investment projects that were initially viable do not remain so and thus, such investments are held back.”

For H1 2008, while interest cost has gone up by 15.4%, operating profit has increased by about 25%. Operating profit has also been boosted by 45% increase in other income, partly coming from forex gain. However, even if we exclude this item from operating profit and then look at interest coverage, there is still a significant improvement from 9.2 to 9.6.

Among the sectors, cement has outperformed with maximum improvement in interest coverage. Textile and auto ancillary are the only sectors, which have suffered from steep hike in interest rate. Textiles, which was already operating at a low coverage ratio of 4.4, has seen it further drop to 3.4.

For auto sector, while the ratio has gone down, the sector is still operating at very high coverage and does not seem to be a cause for concern.

RBI Tightens Norms On Banks' Market Play

MUMBAI: With the Sensex crossing the 20,000 milestone, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not taking any chances with banks’ exposure to stock markets. The central bank has widened the definition of stock market exposure and has given banks six months to bring down exposure to equities.

In a circular, RBI has told banks that exposure to stock markets will now include lending by banks to mutual funds and also payment commitments made to stock exchanges on behalf of mutual funds and foreign institutional investors (FIIs).

Until now, RBI had announced the exposure limit for loans and advances to individuals against units of mutual funds. However, there are no explicit guidelines for grant of loans and advances to fund houses for their short-term liquidity requirement.

“The annual inspection of certain banks and an analysis of the consolidated prudential return (CPR) of some banks show that they have extended large loans to various mutual funds and have also issued irrevocable payment commitments (IPCs) to stock exchanges (BSE & NSE) on behalf of mutual funds/FIIs. These exposures have, however, not been included by the banks for computation of their capital market exposure,” the circular said.

It goes on to add that after examining these loans, the central bank had decided that they constitute capital market exposure.

According to Sebi regulations, mutual funds can borrow to meet temporary liquidity needs for repurchase, redemption of units or payment of interest or dividend to unit holders. However, this borrowing is limited to 20% of the net asset of the scheme and for a duration not exceeding six months.

“The Sebi guidelines imply that mutual funds should normally meet their repurchase/redemption commitments from their own resources and resort to borrowing only to meet temporary liquidity needs. In view of the above, banks are advised to be judicious in extending finance to mutual funds and grant loans and advances to mutual funds only to meet their temporary liquidity needs,” RBI said. Irrevocable payment commitments are issued by banks to enable mutual funds transact in stock exchanges.

According to RBI, these commitments are to be reckoned as guarantees issued for the purpose of capital market operations and should, therefore, form part of capital market exposure.

Stock market exposure along with real estate and commodities comprise exposure to sensitive sector. Last year, the central bank had cracked down on banks’ exposure to real estate after it doubled in 2006-07. The regulator also widened the scope of real estate during the year.

It has also asked banks to treat loans extended for setting up special economic zones (SEZ) as real estate loans. Capital market exposure, in addition to exposures to shares and mutual funds, also include investments in convertible bonds, debentures, and all exposure to venture capital funds. The overall exposure (fund and non-fund) cannot exceed 40% of the bank’s previous year’s net worth.

Friday, December 14, 2007

India Should Join Global Anti-TB Plan: WB Study

WASHINGTON: Countries like India and China, with high numbers of TB cases could gain more from the money they spend on diagnosis and treatment of the disease if they joined a global plan to sharply reduce the numbers of Tuberculosis-related deaths, a World Bank study has said.

The economic impact of TB deaths and the benefits of TB control among 22 high-burden countries are greatest in China and India, where the combination of growing incomes and a relatively high number of TB deaths translates into a significant economic effect, according to the 'The Economic Benefit of Global Investments in Tuberculosis Control'.

The study says that despite recent gains in fighting Tuberculosis, there were still 8.8 million new cases and 1.6 million deaths from the disease in 2005. Without treatment, two-thirds of smear-positive cases die within five to eight years, with most dying within 18 months of being infected.

Highly affected African countries could also gain up to nine times their investments in TB control with the study warning about the need to step-up TB control worldwide with the growing emergence of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) in Southern Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

The study, commissioned by the WB on behalf of the Stop TB Partnership and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, has attracted considerable interest from international health and development agencies, along with research and civil society groups, which want more aggressive TB control worldwide. The disease is the leading infectious killer after HIV/AIDS.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

SEBI Chief Questions Role Of Govt Nominees On Boards

MUMBAI: The SEBI chairman M Damodaran has suggested raising the bar with regard to representatives on company boards. Addressing a CII conference on corporate governance in Mumbai on Wednesday he questioned the role of government nominees on the board of state-owned companies.

“Do people, who represent a certain constituent, continue to represent them when they get into the boardroom? Sometimes it appears that they seem to forget the source from which they have come from,” said the SEBI chief.

The market regulator had in the recent past, for the first time taken to task 20 companies including five state-owned ones for not adhering to the Clause 49 provision. Clause 49 defines certain corporate governance rules for listed companies including board composition. The SEBI chairman said, “We don’t need people who are there just to grace the board. Rather, we need to see how they add value to the board.” Several companies, in recent times, have roped in film stars and cricket personalities to be part of their boards. It is felt that these members added very little value to the company’s growth.

Terming boards as a centre stage for governance process, Mr Damodaran said it was important to retain good people on boards who could also add value to the functioning. To that extent he also suggested a cap on the number of boards a person can be a director. “If the director is expected to do justice to the company, especially if the company is in stress, it requires additional time and effort, which a person of several boards may not be able to do,” he said.
Further, Mr Damodaran called for more flexible corporate governance regulations to enable its implementation more effectively.

“While a minimum prescription of corporate governance is required, at the same time what needs to be found out is whether the current regulations are overtly prescriptive to the extent that it dampens the credibility and innovation on the board,” he said. The SEBI chief questioned whether an “overly prescriptive regime” had dampened innovation or whether stipulation of quarterly reporting made companies take a short term view.

Oil Eases Below $94 After 5% Overnight Jump

SEOUL: Oil prices eased below $94 a barrel on Thursday, taking a breather after a rally of almost 5 percent in the previous session on a drawdown in US crude stocks and a move by major central banks to ease tight credit conditions.

US light, sweet crude futures fell 44 cents to $93.95 a barrel in Globex electronic trading by 0307 GMT, paring Wednesday's jump of more than $4 a barrel as traders questioned whether the central banks' move would solve the credit crunch.

London Brent crude fell 52 cents to $93.50 a barrel. "NYMEX prices fell because of a technical correction, after rising more than $4 during floor trading last night," said Shuji Sugata, manager at Mitsubishi Corp Futures Ltd.

The US Federal Reserve will band together with its counterparts in Europe, Japan, Canada and Britain to shore up liquidity in financial markets.

This marks their first coordinated action since terror attacks shut down US financial markets on Sept. 11, 2001, and boosted markets overnight. Oil prices have come under pressure in recent weeks, easing from a record $99.29 hit on Nov. 21 because of concerns over the impact of tight credit conditions on economic health of the world's top consumer, the United States.

A sharp 700,000-barrel decline in US weekly inventory data on Wednesday, which sent stockpiles down to their lowest since March 2005, also supported oil prices. Distillates stocks fell 800,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories rose 1.6 million barrels, the data showed.

Exxon Mobil Corp said operations at its 150,000 barrel per day (bpd) Los Angles-area refinery in Torrance, California, were returning to normal on Wednesday after two steam boilers were relit, marginally lifting pressure off the market.

Trading of NYMEX futures contracts on the CME's Globex electronic platform resumed earlier in the day after a technical glitch that halted activity for over an hour. Prices returned to normal around midnight GMT. "I don't think the computer mishap had any impact on pushing down prices," Sugata said.

Friday, December 7, 2007

Rupee At 39.48 Against US dollar

The rupee was steady at 39.4850/4950 against a US dollar on Thursday due to suspected central bank intervention, dollar demand from banks and a firm trend in equity markets. In active trade at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (forex) market, the local currency fluctuated in a range of 39.45 and 39.55 during the day after resuming higher at 39.45/46 a dollar on the back of initial sharp stock rally.

Attributing the rupee''s better start to capital inflows on Wednesday and strong trend in global equity markets, forex dealers said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is believed to have intervened to cap the rupee surge at the fag end of session. Traders expected the rupee to remain in the current range unless any clear indication of FII inflows into the country.The capital inflows have pushed the rupee by about 12 per cent so far in the year.

The benchmark Sensex, which breached 20K level at the outset, later ended with a moderate gain of 58 points. The RBI, however, fixed the reference rate for the US currency at Rs 39.47 per dollar and for the single European unit at Rs 57.65 per euro.The rupee premium on forward dollar ended hardly changed on alternate bouts of buying and selling. The benchmark six-month forward dollar premiums payable in May ended steady at 27-1/2 - 29-1/2 paise from 27 - 29 paise on Dec 5 and the far-forwards maturing in November closed slightly better at 44 - 46 paise from 42 - 44 paise previously. In cross-currency trades, the local unit recovered against the British sterling and the euro while improved further against the Japanese yen.

Punjab To Spruce Up Wheat Cultivation Area

New Delhi/ Chandigarh/ Jalandhar: Punjab is set to give a boost to wheat production in the state with the inclusion of seven districts in the under the National Food Security Mission programme by the Centre. The districts are Bathinda, Ropar, Sangrur, Ferozepur, Amritsar, Hoshiarpur and Gurdaspur. Under this programme the aim is to increase the average yield of wheat. The average yield of wheat in Punjab is 4,200 kg per hectare. However, in the districts, except Sangrur(4,234 kg), selected under the programme, the yield of wheat is less than the state''s average.

Under the mission, farmers in the seven districts of the state have been provided with a subsidy of Rs. 500 per quintal for wheat seeds. In the rest of the state, the subsidy is on a sharing basis between the state and the Centre. Thus, seed to farmers was being provided at Rs 1,200 per quintal against the market price of Rs 1,700 per quintal. Besides, the state government has distributed 57, 200 packets of 5 kg each of high-yielding variety of wheat PBW 502 free to the farmers to replace low-yielding variety. Earlier, to increase wheat production, Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal has instructed the authorities to replace at least 33 per cent of wheat seed. About 1.05 million quintals of wheat seed were required for replacement purposes. The state agriculture department has sown high-yielding variety of wheat in 37,000 acre to demonstrate the farmers about the latest technique and practices involved in wheat cultivation. It is also felt that the hike of Rs 250 in the minimum support price (MSP) of wheat has increased the area under cultivation in the Punjab. As against the target area of 3.37 million hectare, wheat has been sown in 3.48 million hectare during this rabi season.