Saturday, June 20, 2009

Dull Trades In Gold After A Choppy Week - June 20, 2009

The Friday dullness trapped the commodity markets today with the equities also having a thin trading activity. Today the MCX benchmark contract traded in the range of Rs 14560 – 14507 per 10 grams. A move above Rs 14565 mark take it towards 14611 levels and the traders may take a long position.

COMEX Gold futures also surged in the mid London trades today, up $ 2.7 at $ 937.3 per ounce. There are no data releases from US tonight and the movement may continue to be sluggish in the floor session.

Weekly Roundup: This week gold futures got consolidated in a thin range, and it may end on a flat note. Over the week so far gold has fallen nearly $ 7 to $934 an ounce levels.

The US dollar appreciated by 0.5% versus the single currency, however it slipped against the Japanese Yen by more than 1.5% to 96.78.

Yen got additional boost this week on positive assessment of economy. Oil futures remained net loses and fell nearly 2% to $71.5 levels so far in this week.

Over all the week was quite choppy with yen rallying, equities in a mixed mood, moderate gains in US dollar, range bound activity in the oil futures

MCX August Gold futures may end this week on positive note knowing the losses the Indian Rupee this week.

So far the week the counter has gained more than Rs 60 to nearly Rs 14550 levels. The INR weakened by 1.5% to 48.13 against the US dollar this week, thereby increasing demand for the Rupee denominated assets.

Correction Expected: Next week we expect some more correction in gold if the COMEX Gold August contract is unable to break the $950 mark with the supports around $925 and $ 900 levels.

On the same lines the MCX August contract fails to break the Rs 14790-820 levels it may fall to Rs 14450 and 14300 levels.

There is barrage of economic data releases next week, week starts with German import prices and Ifo business climate index on Monday, Tuesday gets Euro Zone consumer spending, manufacturing and services PMI, existing home sales from US, on Wednesday there are US durable goods order, new home sales, UK's inflation report hearing, and FOMC statement and the rate decision, Thursday brings industrial orders from Europe, final GDP number from US, and the week ends with German CPI numbers, US PCE price index, personal spending, consumer sentiments and inflation expectations.

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