The Reserve Bank of India released results of quarterly Survey of professional forecasters on major macroeconomic indicators of medium term economic developments on 14 May 2009. The survey covered component-wise detailed forecasts of GDP growth, inflation, savings, capital formation, consumption expenditure, export, import, interest rates, money supply, credit growth, stock market movements, corporate profit.
Forecasters have revised their real GDP growth rate downwards to 6.6% in 2008-09 from 6.8% in the last survey. The forecast for the year 2009-10 has also been revised to 5.7% from 6.0% in the last survey. The forecasters are asked to assign the probabilities to the possibility that year over year real GDP growth will fall into various ranges.
Real GDP growth forecast originating from agriculture for the year 2008-09 has been revised downwards to 1.6% from 3% in the earlier survey and for the industrial sector it was revised downwards from 4.9 % in the last survey to 4.1%. For the services sector, however, the growth forecast has been revised upwards to 9.3 % from 9 % in the last survey.
For the year 2009-10, the forecast for industry has been revised downwards from 5 % in the last survey to 4.1 % in the current survey. The forecasts for agriculture and services sector have been kept at the same level of 3 % and 7.5 % respectively.
On a flip side the proportion of domestic saving to GDP is indicated to be 35.3 % in 2008-09, revised upwards from 33 % in the last survey. Forecasters expect gross domestic capital formation to contribute 37.5 % of real GDP in 2008-09 (34.9 % in last survey), while contribution of gross fixed capital formation is expected to be 33.7 % (revised upwards from 32 % in the last survey).
The forecasters have predicted private final consumption expenditure to grow at the rate of 6.5 %, down from earlier forecast of 6.8 % in the last survey.
Broad money (M3) growth is revised downwards to 17.5 % in 2009-10 from the earlier forecast of 18.3 %. In 2009-10, bank credit is expected to grow at the rate of 16 % against its previous forecast of 20 %.
Central Government fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 6.2 % of GDP in 2008-09, whereas the combined gross fiscal deficit is placed at 9.8 %. Both these figures have been revised upwards from 5 % and 8 %, respectively, in the last survey.
Forecasters' median estimates for WPI inflation on a year over year basis in the first quarter of 2009-10 is revised downwards to (-) 1.4 % against the earlier forecast of 2.4 %. According to forecasters have assigned highest 40 % chance that inflation will be in the range of 5-5.9 % in 2009-10.
Forecasters have revised their real GDP growth rate downwards to 6.6% in 2008-09 from 6.8% in the last survey. The forecast for the year 2009-10 has also been revised to 5.7% from 6.0% in the last survey. The forecasters are asked to assign the probabilities to the possibility that year over year real GDP growth will fall into various ranges.
Real GDP growth forecast originating from agriculture for the year 2008-09 has been revised downwards to 1.6% from 3% in the earlier survey and for the industrial sector it was revised downwards from 4.9 % in the last survey to 4.1%. For the services sector, however, the growth forecast has been revised upwards to 9.3 % from 9 % in the last survey.
For the year 2009-10, the forecast for industry has been revised downwards from 5 % in the last survey to 4.1 % in the current survey. The forecasts for agriculture and services sector have been kept at the same level of 3 % and 7.5 % respectively.
On a flip side the proportion of domestic saving to GDP is indicated to be 35.3 % in 2008-09, revised upwards from 33 % in the last survey. Forecasters expect gross domestic capital formation to contribute 37.5 % of real GDP in 2008-09 (34.9 % in last survey), while contribution of gross fixed capital formation is expected to be 33.7 % (revised upwards from 32 % in the last survey).
The forecasters have predicted private final consumption expenditure to grow at the rate of 6.5 %, down from earlier forecast of 6.8 % in the last survey.
Broad money (M3) growth is revised downwards to 17.5 % in 2009-10 from the earlier forecast of 18.3 %. In 2009-10, bank credit is expected to grow at the rate of 16 % against its previous forecast of 20 %.
Central Government fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 6.2 % of GDP in 2008-09, whereas the combined gross fiscal deficit is placed at 9.8 %. Both these figures have been revised upwards from 5 % and 8 %, respectively, in the last survey.
Forecasters' median estimates for WPI inflation on a year over year basis in the first quarter of 2009-10 is revised downwards to (-) 1.4 % against the earlier forecast of 2.4 %. According to forecasters have assigned highest 40 % chance that inflation will be in the range of 5-5.9 % in 2009-10.
No comments:
Post a Comment