The growth of India''s export could be as low as 3 per cent in 2009-10, the Planning Commission said in its report to the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. "If we assume that India''s exports depend on (the) growth rate of advanced economies rather than on the growth rate of the world economy, our export growth rate in 2009 can be only 3 per cent", said a report on the prospects of the Indian economy in 2009-10.
The report said that in the best-case scenario the exports would register a growth rate of 6 per cent in the next fiscal. This, however, would be much lower than the average export growth rate of 21 per cent during 2006-07 and 2007-08. The report further said that one per cent fall in the global output results in 4.4 per cent decline in exports. According to the assessment, with global output falling by 0.9 per cent in 2009, India''s exports could further dip by four percentage points during the year.
The report said that in the best-case scenario the exports would register a growth rate of 6 per cent in the next fiscal. This, however, would be much lower than the average export growth rate of 21 per cent during 2006-07 and 2007-08. The report further said that one per cent fall in the global output results in 4.4 per cent decline in exports. According to the assessment, with global output falling by 0.9 per cent in 2009, India''s exports could further dip by four percentage points during the year.
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