The real GDP of India is projected to grow by seven per cent in FY10, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its monthly review here. CMIE expects that the growth rate to soar slowly from around six per cent in the first-half to about eight per cent in the second-half of FY10. The global liquidity crisis has suddenly brought the economy''s growth of nine per cent to a grinding halt. However, FY10 would gradually recover from this jolt.
The Indian economy is likely to see quicker recovery in FY10 despite the global economy seems to be getting into a deep crisis. In the overall growth of the Indian economy, the agricultural sector has traditionally been the principal source of volatility. However, a decline in the GDP growth is usually due to fall in agricultural production. The agricultural sector in the last ten-year period ending 2005 reported a fall in output in every alternate year. CMIE pointed that this seriously debilitating trend seems to have been reversed. The agriculture sector has registered positive growth for four consecutive years - from FY 06 to FY 09. On the top of this, CMIE expects the sector to register a positive growth rate again in FY10. The CMIE report said, we expect the growth rate to slow down to 2.4 per cent. Nevertheless, a fifth consecutive year of positive growth in agriculture would contribute directly to the growth in FY10 and would have a positive impact on the domestic demand,".
The agriculture sector output in the third quarter of FY09 registered a fall of 2.2 per cent. "We believe that at least a part of the fall may get corrected with revisions in agriculture production data. This is likely to happen in the case of cotton and to a small extent in the case of rice."
The Indian economy is likely to see quicker recovery in FY10 despite the global economy seems to be getting into a deep crisis. In the overall growth of the Indian economy, the agricultural sector has traditionally been the principal source of volatility. However, a decline in the GDP growth is usually due to fall in agricultural production. The agricultural sector in the last ten-year period ending 2005 reported a fall in output in every alternate year. CMIE pointed that this seriously debilitating trend seems to have been reversed. The agriculture sector has registered positive growth for four consecutive years - from FY 06 to FY 09. On the top of this, CMIE expects the sector to register a positive growth rate again in FY10. The CMIE report said, we expect the growth rate to slow down to 2.4 per cent. Nevertheless, a fifth consecutive year of positive growth in agriculture would contribute directly to the growth in FY10 and would have a positive impact on the domestic demand,".
The agriculture sector output in the third quarter of FY09 registered a fall of 2.2 per cent. "We believe that at least a part of the fall may get corrected with revisions in agriculture production data. This is likely to happen in the case of cotton and to a small extent in the case of rice."
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