Friday, November 14, 2008

Back To Single Digit Inflation Dips To 8.98% - Nov 14, 2008

Falling commodities prices continued to cool India''s inflation, which has been running near a 13-year high, the Ministry of Commerce said on Nov 13. The wholesale price index - India''s most-watched inflation measure - eased to 9 percent for the week ended Nov. 1, down from 10.7 percent for the prior week.It was the first time inflation has slipped to a single-digit rate since hitting a high of 12.4 percent in the week ended Aug. 2. This time last year, inflation was 3.4 percent.

Policy-makers have been watching inflation rates closely, as they seek to reinvigorate growth without letting prices run out of control in the build up to national elections.Business groups have been pushing for further interest-rate cuts to stimulate India''s economic growth, which has faltered as foreign investment drained from the country.This week, Goldman Sachs downgraded its economic growth forecasts for India, to 6.7 percent from 7.5 percent for fiscal year 2009, and to 5.8 percent from 7 percent for fiscal year 2010.

Goldman said the shock to India''s financial sector from Wall Street''s convulsions has been "larger than expected" and predicted a continuing slowdown in capital expenditure, domestic consumption, and exports.Tushar Poddar, vice president of Goldman''s Asia economics research team, also warned that nation could be at the precipice of a downward credit spiral even though Indian banks are well-capitalized and the country''s consumer credit boom is just four years old.

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