Saturday, August 30, 2008

The First Quarter GDP Growth - 30 Aug 08

The first quarter GDP growth has dropped to its slowest pace since 2004 to 7.9 per cent, from 9.2 per cent a year earlier. The manufacturing growth saw a big decline to 5.6 per cent, from 10.9 per cent a year earlier. The agriculture growth dropped to 3 per cent, as compared to 4.4 per cent a year earlier. Electricity grew at 2.6 per cent while mining sector grew at 4.8 per cent.

On the positive side, construction witnessed a big jump, increasing to 11.4 per cent year-on-year, as compared to 7.7 per cent in the previous fiscal. But analysts still see further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India. We expect further monetary tightening by the central bank, S&P said. Industrialist Adi Godrej said the GDP growth at 8 per cent levels is "still good" for India. Consumer demand has been firm. Deutsch Bank however forecast a further drop in GDP growth this year. We expect GDP growth at 6%-6.5% by year end.

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