GDP Growth In Q2 Likely To Decline Below 9pc

New Delhi: A relatively slow performance by the industrial sector and a high base effect likely to slow down gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter (July-September) of fiscal 2007-08 to below 9 per cent. Economic data for the period is scheduled to be declared by the Central Statistical Organisation on Nov 30. Growth in the second quarter may moderate to 8.7 per cent, said Crisil. They hope growth to continue moderating and may be touch 8.1 per cent in the last quarter of the financial year. Crisil has forecast a growth rate of 8.6 per cent for FY 08.

Growth in the second quarter will be reasonably strong as I feel the real impact of the monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be more prominent starting from the second half of the current financial year. The economy grew at 10.2 per cent in the corresponding quarter last year. In the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year, GDP growth was 9.3 per cent, higher than the 9.1 per cent in January-March quarter, the last of the previous fiscal year.