Saturday, August 1, 2009

COMEX Gold Just Under $940 Ahead Of New York Open - August 01, 2009

Gold was seen consolidating around $940 per ounce mark in today's session as the commodity market participants eyed the steady undertone in the global markets. However, some selling pressure was seen at higher levels as traders covered their open positions ahead of the weekends. Earlier in the week, South African Trade union Solidarity signed wage agreements in both the gold and coal sectors in the Chamber of Mines yesterday.

The union says the agreements are favorable and is particularly satisfied that the agreements could be reached without strike action.

Meanwhile, in Asia today, COMEX Gold rose in tune with the global asset markets today, reconfirming a pattern, which has been in the play for the last few days.

The commodity is showing signs of re visiting $950 mark yet again given that there are overwhelming concerns that strong demand from India and China would not pull prices down much even if the dollar appreciates further.

The sustained high rupee price for gold is not having a significant impact on trade demand for the metal in the run-up to the wedding and festival demand in India, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

Oil rose above $67 a barrel today, boosted by stock markets in Asia. The US stock futures also opened higher today signaling a potential rebound by Wall Street from the previous day's decline amid an ongoing flood of major corporate earnings data. Asian stock markets were higher Friday, buoyed by Wall Street's gains.

COMEX Gold futures for December are trading just under $940 per ounce, coming off a high of $942.70 per ounce.

MCX Gold witnessed some selling above Rs 14700 mark, coming off a peak at Rs 14728 and currently trade at Rs 14646, down Rs 50 or 0.34% from the previous close with a massive 12% drop in the open interest.

The near month August contract trades at Rs 14646, down Rs 56 with a massive decline of 23% in the open interest.

Reduced Monsoon May Dent Economic Recovery - August 01, 2009

Moody''s expressed concern that a poor monsoon may dent India''s economic recovery. Thus a decline in agricultural output and a consequential fall in farm income may not just limit rural spending but widen the gap in wealth between rural and urban India, damaging its social fabric. India''s rural population accounts for a large share of total consumption hence, a generous slowdown in rural spending will limit overall consumption growth.

However, although the farm sector accounts for about 18% of the country''s gross domestic product, farm incomes is a key to the survival of about two-thirds of its population.

Moreover, a considerable fall in this year''s food grain output may activate a price rise, adding that the Reserve Bank''s upward revision of inflation risk to 5% for 2009-10 from 4% earlier is an indicator of the tough times to come.

Not only this, the farming cycle during the Rabi may be affected, raising apprehensions about a dip in output in the immediate following season as well, if the lack of improvement in rainfall stretches into August.

However, the research major feels urgent upgrading in farm technology; better irrigation facilities and major drive to overall agricultural infrastructure hold the key to sustainable food security in the country.

Friday, July 31, 2009

Bond Prices Decrease In Advance Of Auction - July 31, 2009

The bond prices slipped by around 50 paise, ahead of the auction of government securities, which is scheduled on Friday. RBI is scheduled to auction government securities of Rs 12,000 crore this week. As per the statement by the Reserve Bank''s Governor that RBI will by and large stick to the OMO calendar that dampened market sentiments, said a dealer with a private bank.

The total traded volumes on the order matching system were at Rs 5,925 crore. The 6.90 per cent-10 year-2019 paper opened at Rs 9 9.90 (6.91 per cent YTM) and slipped to close at Rs 99.47 (6.97 per cent YTM) as against the previous close of Rs 99.95 (6.91 per cent YTM).

Moreover, the 7.94 per cent-12 year-2021 paper opened at Rs 105.65 (7.21 per cent YTM) and closed at Rs 105.20 (7.27 per cent YTM).

Gold Remains Down On Global Cues Of Passive Demand - July 31, 2009

Being in a loss for the second straight session, due to weak global trend, gold prices on July 30 fell by another Rs 120 to Rs 14,870 per ten gram followed by silver which recorded a steep fall of Rs 300 to Rs 22,100 per kg. However, traders said that after the metal''s fall to 924.60 dollar an ounce last evening, investor sentiments in gold remained weak as the dollar firmed against the euro fading demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

Additionally, they said fall in demand at higher levels and shifting of funds from bullion to rising equity markets also weighed on the gold prices in domestic markets.

However, standard gold and ornaments fell by Rs 120 each to Rs 14,870 and Rs 14,720 per ten gram respectively, while sovereign declined by Rs 25 to 12,450 per piece of eight gram.

Precious Metals Gather Round Some Shine - July 31, 2009

Precious metal prices rose on Thursday, 30 July, 2009. Prices shone today as the rebounding crude price and weak dollar increased the appeal of precious metals as a hedge against inflation. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Thursday, gold for August delivery ended at $934.9, higher by $7.7 (0.8%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, gold ended higher by 1.6%. Year to date, gold prices are higher by 5.5%.

For the month of June, 2009, gold ended down by 5.4%. Gold had ended the month of May higher by 9.8%.

It was the highest monthly gain registered by gold in six months. For the second quarter, gold ended higher by 0.5%. The metal had gained 4.3% in the first quarter of this year.

On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped somewhat (11.5%) since then.

On Thursday, Comex silver futures for September delivery gained 48.2 cents (3.5%) at $13.258 an ounce. Last week, silver ended higher by 3.5%.

Silver ended 13% down for the month of June, 2009. For the month of May, silver gained 26.6%. It was the biggest monthly gain for silver in more than two decades.

For second quarter, silver rose 4.5%. Year to date, silver has climbed 21.7% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

In the currency market on Thursday, the dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's value, rose modestly.

In the crude market, crude prices rose in synchronization with US stocks.

In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index had gained 12% that year.

At the MCX, gold prices for October delivery closed higher by Rs 45 (0.3%) at Rs 14,696 per 10 grams.

Prices rose to a high of Rs 14,715 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 14,631 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for September delivery closed Rs 274 (1.25%) higher at Rs 22,153/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 21,945/kg and rose to a high of Rs 22,238/Kg during the day's trading.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Precious Metals Go On All Sides Of Paler - July 30, 2009

Precious metal prices fell on Wednesday, 29 July, 2009. The strong dollar was mainly responsible for this. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Wednesday, gold for August delivery ended at $927.2, lower by $11.9 (1.3%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, gold ended higher by 1.6%. Year to date, gold prices are higher by 4.7%.

For the month of June, 2009, gold ended down by 5.4%. Gold had ended the month of May higher by 9.8%.

It was the highest monthly gain registered by gold in six months. For the second quarter, gold ended higher by 0.5%. The metal had gained 4.3% in the first quarter of this year.

On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped somewhat (11.5%) since then.

On Wednesday, Comex silver futures for September delivery lost 48 cents (3.5%) at $13.26 an ounce. Last week, silver ended higher by 3.5%.

Silver ended 13% down for the month of June, 2009. For the month of May, silver gained 26.6%. It was the biggest monthly gain for silver in more than two decades.

For second quarter, silver rose 4.5%. Year to date, silver has climbed 18.2% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

In the currency market on Wednesday, the dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's value, rose by more than 0.7%.

The euro fell by more than 1% against the dollar. In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index had gained 12% that year.

At the MCX, gold prices for August delivery closed lower by Rs 90 (0.6%) at Rs 14,651 per 10 grams.

Prices rose to a high of Rs 14,750 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 14,618 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for September delivery closed Rs 517 (2.3%) lower at Rs 21,879/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 22,336/kg and fell to a low of Rs 21,758/Kg during the day's trading.

Inflation By The Side Of Quarters Negative Zone - July 30, 2009

The official Wholesale Price Index for all commodities for the week ended 18th July 2009 rose by 0.04% to 236.8 from 236.7 for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point-to-point basis, stood at -1.54% for the week ended 18 July 2009 compared with 19 July 2008. India's WPI is constantly moving in negative zone, thanks to the higher base effect. However the trend is expected to reverse in near term with lower base effect setting in.

The index for primary article rose by 0.3% to 261.1 from 260.3 for the previous week. In primary article index, 'Food Articles' group index rose by 1.2% to 259.0 from 255.9 for the previous week due to higher prices of mutton (14%), arhar (9%), gram (4%), moong, jowar, fruits & vegetables and masur (3% each), bajra and urad (2% each) and maize and ragi (1% each). However, the prices of condiments & spices (1%) declined.

The index for 'Non-Food Articles' group rose by 1.7% to 242.5 from 238.4 for the previous week due to higher prices of logs & timber (35%), copra (3%), raw silk (2%) and rape & mustard seed, raw cotton and gingelly seed (1% each). However, the prices of sunflower (1%) declined.

The index for 'Minerals' group declined by 16.8% to 561.7 from 675.4 for the previous week due to lower prices of iron ore (24%) and felspar (3%).

However, the prices of vermiculite (86%), manganese ore (77%), silica sand (4%) and barytes (2%) moved up.

The index for fuel and power declined by 0.1% to 338.2 from 338.4 for the previous week due to lower prices of aviation turbine fuel (7%).

The index for manufactured group declined by 0.1% to 205.7 from 205.9 for the previous week. The index for 'Food Products' group declined by 0.4% to 232.1 from 233.0 for the previous week due to lower prices of oil cakes (3%) and cotton seed oil (1%).

However, the prices of imported edible oil (4%) and rice bran oil, coconut oil, sugar, butter, ghee and gur (1% each) moved up.

The index for 'Beverages Tobacco & Tobacco Products' group rose marginally to 304.4 from 304.3 for the previous week due to higher prices of soft drinks (all kinds) (1%).

The index for 'Textiles' group declined by 0.2% to 143.4 from 143.7 for the previous week due to lower prices of hessian cloth (3%) and hessian & sacking bags (2%).

The index for 'Chemicals & Chemical Products' group rose marginally to 227.1 from 227.0 for the previous week due to higher prices of acid (all kinds) (1%).

The index for 'Non-Metallic Mineral Products' group declined by 0.1% to 222.5 from 222.8 for the previous week due to marginal decline in the prices of cement.

The index for 'Basic Metals Alloys & Metal Products' group rose marginally to 255.1 from 255.0 for the previous week due to higher prices of foundry pig iron and basic pig iron (1% each). However, the prices of other iron steel, steel ingots and lead ingots (1% each) declined.

The WPI inflation turned negative in June 2009 due to the statistical base effect and not because of any contraction in demand.

Within WPI, inflation of primary articles, particularly food articles, are continuously rising, recording a growth of 8.57% in June 2009 over 5.94% in June 2008.

Moreover consumer price indices (CPIs) are at elevated levels, indeed have also hardened in recent months.

Growing demand and concern on supply has resulted into higher prices of essential commodities. This has again raised the expectations of rise in inflation.

In recent policy review, RBI has projected 5% inflation for end –March 2010 that is higher then 4% projected in the Annual Policy meet on 21 April 2009.

Moving further, the rising commodity prices globally and the uncertain monsoon outlook could further accentuate food price inflation.

Rupee Fall Down 21 Paise, Split Ends At 48.30 - July 30, 2009

The rupee on Wednesday tumbled by 21 paisa against the US dollar amid expectations of fresh capital outflows and month end dollar demand due to the weakness in the local equity markets. In active trade at Interbank Foreign Exchange market, the rupee resumed lower at 48.30/31 per dollar as against its previous close of 48.20/21 a dollar. Reflecting a steep decline in the local equity markets, the domestic currency later hit a low of 48.52.

The BSE Sensex was down by a whopping nearly 444 points in late morning deals after China''s stock dipped most in eight months on concerns over the prospects of earnings growth.

However, at a later stage, it recovered to close lower by 158.48 points. Tracking this, the rupee also bounced back to close at 48.41/42. It touched a high of 48.26 a dollar.

However, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed the reference rate for the US dollar at Rs 48.47 while for the euro at Rs 68.45.

The rupee premiums on the forward dollar closed steady to slightly better on stray paying pressure from corporates and banks.

The benchmark six-month forward dollar premium payable in December closed hardly changed at 46-1/2-48-1/2 paise from 46-48 paise on Tuesday and the far-forwards maturing in June also shot up to 96-1/2 to 98-1/2 paise from 96-98 paise previously.

However, the rupee remained weak against the Japanese yen. The rupee shot up against the pound to close at Rs 79.22/24 from Rs 79.58/60 but it strengthened against the euro to Rs 68.34/36 from Rs 68.72/74.

Further, it eased against the Japanese yen to Rs 50.93/95 per 100 yen from Rs 50.84/86 previously.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Govt Have Access To May Disappoint Private Sector - July 29, 2009

According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the higher government borrowings resulting the higher bond yields might upset the private sector. The reason behind the RBI’s statement is that the higher bond yields had militated against the low interest regime required to encourage private sector investments.

This is the first statement from the central bank accepting the adverse impact of such borrowings.

The yield on the 10-year government paper has moved up from 6.81 per cent on the eve of the Union Budget, announced earlier this month, to 6.94 per cent at the close of trading on 28th July.

However, the central bank maintained that various tools available with it in the form of open market operations (OMOs) and redemption of market stabilization scheme (MSS) bonds have ensured adequate liquidity in the banking system.

Meanwhile, the central bank also stated that it has enough headroom to ensure that the borrowing programme was carried out easily.

Precious Metals Go Round Unexciting - July 29, 2009

Falling crude price and strengthening dollar took their toll on precious metals on Tuesday, 28 July, 2009. Crude prices slipped for the first time after four consecutive sessions of rise. On the other hand, weak consumer confidence data strengthened the dollar. These factors reduced the appeal of precious metals as a hedge against inflation. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Tuesday, gold for August delivery ended at $939.1, lower by $14.40 (1.5%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, gold ended higher by 1.6%. Year to date, gold prices are higher by 6%.

For the month of June, 2009, gold ended down by 5.4%. Gold had ended the month of May higher by 9.8%.

It was the highest monthly gain registered by gold in six months. For the second quarter, gold ended higher by 0.5%. The metal had gained 4.3% in the first quarter of this year.

On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped somewhat (10%) since then.

On Tuesday, Comex silver futures for September delivery lost 25 cents (1.8%) at $13.74 an ounce. Last week, silver ended higher by 3.5%.

Silver ended 13% down for the month of June, 2009. For the month of May, silver gained 26.6%. It was the biggest monthly gain for silver in more than two decades.

For second quarter, silver rose 4.5%. Year to date, silver has climbed 21.7% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

In the currency market on Tuesday, the dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's value, rose by more than 0.4%. The dollar strengthened on weak consumer confidence data.

The Conference Board reported on Tuesday, 28 July, 2009 that consumer confidence took its second consecutive monthly drop in July, 2009.

The index dropped to 46.6 in July from an unrevised 49.3 in June. In May, the confidence gauge stood at 54.8.

The confidence measure was worse than expected. Market was expecting confidence to dip to 48 in July from the June reading.

In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index had gained 12% that year.

At the MCX, gold prices for August delivery closed lower by Rs 186 (1.2%) at Rs 14,755 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 14,962 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 14,715 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for September delivery closed Rs 331 (1.5%) lower at Rs 22,396/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 22,750/kg and fell to a low of Rs 22,258/Kg during the day's trading.

Rupee Cuts 3 Sessions Of Rise Cataract Of 4 Paise - July 29, 2009

The Indian rupee on July 28 fell by four paise against the dollar on account of month-end demand for the US currency as well as weakness in local equity markets. At the Interbank Foreign Exchange market, the rupee resumed lower at 48.23/24 a dollar from its overnight close of Rs 48.16/17 a dollar. The forex dealers said that importers, mainly oil refiners, were seen purchasing dollars for their month-end import payments putting some pressure on the rupee.

The rupee later moved in a range of 48.13 and 48.3050 a dollar before closing at 48.20/21. The Indian benchmark Sensex ended lower by 43.10 points or 0.28 per cent.

Moreover, the dealers further added that the investors remained sidelined ahead of the announcement of the RBI''s quarterly monetary policy review.

But after the announcement, the dealers termed it a non-event as the Central bank kept the key interest rates unchanged and increased the inflation forecast to five per cent by end March 2010 from earlier four per cent.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Precious Metals Last Part Marginally Higher - July 28, 2009

Precious metal prices ended little higher on Monday, 27 July, 2009. It was a day of volatile trading for precious metals as prices swung between gains and losses. The dollar managed to gain back some of its lost ground. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Monday, gold for August delivery ended at $953.5, higher by $0.40 (0.04%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, gold ended higher by 1.6%. Year to date, gold prices are higher by 7.44%.

For the month of June, 2009, gold ended down by 5.4%. Gold had ended the month of May higher by 9.8%.

It was the highest monthly gain registered by gold in six months. For the second quarter, gold ended higher by 0.5%. The metal had gained 4.3% in the first quarter of this year.

On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped somewhat (10%) since then.

On Monday, Comex silver futures for September delivery rose 11.5 cents (0.9%) at $13.99 an ounce. Last week, silver ended higher by 3.5%.

Silver ended 13% down for the month of June, 2009. For the month of May, silver gained 26.6%. It was the biggest monthly gain for silver in more than two decades.

For second quarter, silver rose 4.5%. Year to date, silver has climbed 23.5% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

In the currency market on Monday, the dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's value, gained back some of its lost ground and rose mildly higher.

In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index had gained 12% that year.

At the MCX, gold prices for August delivery closed higher by Rs 41 (0.27%) at Rs 14,941 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 14,972 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 14,897 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for September delivery closed Rs 200 (0.88%) higher at Rs 22,727/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 22,550/kg and rose to a high of Rs 22,820/Kg during the day's trading.

Reserve Bank Of India Plant Life Explanation Rates Unmoved - July 28, 2009

The RBI on Tuesday kept the key policy rates unchanged but increased the inflation forecast to 5 per cent. RBI kept the repo rate, at which the central bank lends cash to banks, at 4.75 per cent and the reverse repo rate, at which it absorbs surplus cash from the banking system, stays at 3.25 per cent, according to the Q1 Monetary Policy. Moreover, the RBI also kept the cash reserve ratio unchanged at 5.00 percent.

The deposit growth is seen at 19 per cent and the review has said that there is scope for the banks to slash interest rates. The SLR also remains unchanged at 24 per cent.

The GDP is expected to grow at 6 per cent while the money supply growth is seen at 18 per cent, according to the quarterly review of the economy.

Since October, RBI has cut its short-term lending rate by 425 basis points in six steps. The RBI also slashed the reverse-repo rate by 275 basis points since early December and reduced the cash reserve requirement by 400 basis points to 5 percent to keep credit flowing.

RBI Inspection Projects Higher Growth Of 6.5 Per Cent In 2009-10 - July 28, 2009

Most recent round of professional forecasters’ survey of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected the country’s overall growth rate advanced at 6.5 per cent for 2009-10. However, growth rate was projected at 5.7 per cent in the previous survey.

The RBI’s Report on Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments: First Quarter Review for 2009-10 was released on Monday on the eve of the first quarter Review of the Monetary Policy.

However, the report warned that there are indications of inflation firming up by the end of the year.

It attributed price pressures to the waning base effect of last year, increase in commodity prices, delayed progress of monsoon potentially increasing food prices, and the inflationary implications of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.

Meanwhile, the sectoral growth rate for the agriculture sector amid the delayed monsoon, has been revised downwards at 2.5 per cent (against 3 per cent in the last survey), the forecast for the industry and services sectors was revised upwards to 4.8 per cent (4.1 per cent) and 8.3 per cent (7.5 per cent), respectively.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Reserve Bank Of India May Leave Policy Rates Unchanged - July 27, 2009

The central bank is likely to keep rates on hold at its policy review on Tuesday, 28 July 2009, due to a surplus liquidity in the banking system and on low demand for credit. The central bank is also likely to lay out a more clear roadmap to conduct the government borrowing programme in a smooth manner and may hike the GDP and inflation forecast for the year ending March 2010 (FY 2010).

Ahead of the review, the RBI will also release the macroeconomic and monetary developments during the quarter ended June 2009.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate, or its key short-term lending rate, by 425 basis points to 4.75% in six steps since October 2008 as it tried to guard a slowing economy against the global financial crisis.

The central bank also slashed the reverse-repo rate by 275 basis points since early December 2008 and brought down the cash reserve requirement (the proportion of deposits that banks set aside), by 400 basis points to 5% since early October 2008 to keep credit flowing.

the government's stimulus measures late last year to counter slowdown in domestic economy have started to bear fruits.

The latest economic data indicated improving economic activity. The six infrastructure industries -- crude oil, refining, coal, electricity, cement and steel -- together grew at an annual rate of 6.5% in June 2009, faster than the previous month's rise of 2.8%, data showed on Thursday, 23 July 2009. The infrastructure sector accounts for 26.7% of India's industrial output.

Inflation based on the wholesale price index declined 1.17% in the year through 11 July 2009, compared to previous week's fall of 1.21%, data released by the government showed on Thursday, 23 July 2009.

Precious Metals Observer Diverse Closing Stages - July 27, 2009

Precious metal prices ended mixed on Friday, 24 July, 2009. Gold prices ended lower for the day while silver rose. The dollar remained relatively steady against its counterparts. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Friday, gold for August delivery ended at $953.1, lower by $1.7 (0.2%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, gold ended higher by 1.6%. Year to date, gold prices are higher by 7.4%.

For the month of June, 2009, gold ended down by 5.4%. Gold had ended the month of May higher by 9.8%.

It was the highest monthly gain registered by gold in six months. For the second quarter, gold ended higher by 0.5%. The metal had gained 4.3% in the first quarter of this year.

On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped somewhat (10%) since then.

On Friday, Comex silver futures for September delivery rose 11 cents (0.8%) at $13.88 an ounce. For the week, silver ended higher by 3.5%.

Silver ended 13% down for the month of June, 2009. For the month of May, silver gained 26.6%. It was the biggest monthly gain for silver in more than two decades.

For second quarter, silver rose 4.5%. Year to date, silver has climbed 22.6% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

In the currency market on Friday, the dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's value, rose mildly higher.

In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index had gained 12% that year.

RBI Likely To Maintain Status Quo On Tuesday - July 27, 2009

Looking at inflation at subzero level, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to go for any cut in key short- term lending as well as borrowing rates and cash reserve ratio (CRR) in the quarterly annual monetary policy review scheduled on Tuesday. The governor of Reserve Bank of India, D Subbarao met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, as part of the pre-policy consultations, on Friday.

The bankers felt that any cut in key-rates at this stage would serve no purpose as there was already surplus liquidity in the system.

Moreover, a still low demand for credit might also prompt the Reserve Bank to maintain a status-quo in its key rates, the bankers said.

Besides this, the Central bank may lay out a clearer roadmap to conduct the Government borrowing programme in a smooth manner and may increase the GDP and inflation forecast for FY10, bankers said.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Public Private Partnership Street Projects Get Govt Clearance - July 25, 2009

The Government on Friday cleared 15 road projects totaling Rs 15,560 crore to be build under the Public Private Partnership (PPP) mode in eleven states. The 25th Public Private Partnership Appraisal Co-mmittee (PPPAC) meeting, chaired by the finance secretary, Mr Ashok Chawla, approved these projects spread over 11 states.

Since January 2006, a panel under the finance ministry has approved 116 projects worth Rs 1,15,000 crore under the public-private partnership mode.

The UPA government is giving a major thrust to the infrastructure sector in an attempt to remove bottlenecks in the Indian infrastructure and boost the economy, which is hit by slowdown.

As per government estimates, the country needs at least $500 billion during the 11th Five Year Plan period to meet the funding needs of infrastructural development.

Gold Continues To Fall Over As Dollar Increase Losses - July 25, 2009

Gold futures continued to tumbled in the mid day London trades today as the US dollar started minimizing the losses against the single currency. August gold futures are expected to open floor trading in New York around $2 an ounce lower Friday, based on electronic activity ahead of the pit session at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. In other markets that have the potential to impact metals in the short term, the euro is up to $1.4246 from $1.4203 late Thursday afternoon.

In screen trading ahead of the pit open, the September S&P 500 futures are up 1.90 points to 970.80.

The lone U.S. economic report on the calendar for Friday is the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index at 9:55 a.m. EDT (1355 GMT).

An ounce of gold on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange is down $ 2.6 at $ 952.2 per ounce. The $954 levels is a very crucial level for gold today.

Comex gold warehouse stocks were up 214,217 ounces at 9,136,535 ounces Thursday, while silver stocks were down 117,180 ounce

The data released so far today from Europe, that the two closely watched business confidence surveys rose more than forecast in July, while U.K. GDP contracted 5.6% annually in the second quarter.

The euro rallied against the British pound and also rose vs. the U.S. dollar on the news. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence gauge is due for release

GDP shrank by 0.8% in the second quarter, the Office for National Statistics said, in a preliminary estimate.

Compared to the same period last year, output fell by 5.6% -- the largest annual decline since current records began in 1955, the ONS said. British pound fell immediately after the data came in, pound is down 0.6% to 1.6415 per US dollar.

MCX upfront month contract is down Rs 30 at Rs 14890 per 10 grams. The counter stayed below the 14925 levels mentioned in the morning update. It may find support near Rs 14865 and 14800 levels.

Friday, July 24, 2009

Precious Metals Prepare Near The Beginning Losses - July 24, 2009

Precious metal prices coughed up earlier losses and ended higher on Thursday, 23 July, 2009. Prices rose today in synchronization with US stocks and also as the dollar retreated. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Thursday, gold for August delivery ended at $954.8, higher by $1.5 (0.2%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Earlier it reached a high of $957.5. Last week, gold ended higher by 2.7%. Year to date, gold prices are higher by 7.6%.

For the month of June, 2009, gold ended down by 5.4%. Gold had ended the month of May higher by 9.8%.

It was the highest monthly gain registered by gold in six months. For the second quarter, gold ended higher by 0.5%. The metal had gained 4.3% in the first quarter of this year.

On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped somewhat (10%) since then.

On Thursday, Comex silver futures for September delivery rose 10 cents (0.8%) at $13.8 an ounce.

Silver ended 13% down for the month of June, 2009. For the month of May, silver gained 26.6%. It was the biggest monthly gain for silver in more than two decades.

For second quarter, silver rose 4.5%. Year to date, silver has climbed 21.8% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

In the currency market on Thursday, the dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's value, fell marginally paring early gains.

At Wall Street today, U.S. equities rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 9,000 for the first time since January, after some companies reported earnings that topped analysts' estimates and home resales increased more than forecast.

In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index had gained 12% that year.

At the MCX, gold prices for August delivery closed lower by Rs 19 (0.13%) at Rs 14,920 per 10 grams.

Prices rose to a high of Rs 14,993 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 14,901 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for September delivery closed Rs 43 (0.19%) higher at Rs 22,433/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 22,420/kg and rose to a high of Rs 22,579/Kg during the day's trading.