India Eyes Investment From Netherlands

New Delhi: India hailed the focussed approach of the Netherlands for recognizing collaborations in bio-technology, agri-business, health, infrastructure and logistics and research and development. During the visit of Dutch Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Frank Heemskerk here, the Union Commerce & Industry Minister Mr Kamal Nath, said: they are happy that the Dutch delegation consists of both small and medium enterprises and has identified focused areas for further collaboration. There is great potential for further intensification of trade and investment relations between India and the Netherlands. He said exports from India during 2002-06 to the Netherlands rose by 11.16 per cent. On India-European Union Free Trade Agreement, both sides resolved that common areas have been identified and further discussions would be held in the third round, scheduled to be next month.

Mr Nath said that there was large scope for Dutch investments in India in agriculture, infrastructure, automotives, biotechnology, food processing and pharmaceuticals. The Netherlands now ranks fourth in the list of countries in terms of cumulative FDI inflows into India during the August 2001-July 2007 period with total inflows amounting to about $2.8 billion. The Netherlands is also among India''s top ten trading partners. India''s main exports to the Netherlands include petroleum (crude and products), readymade garments, electric goods, machinery and the main imports from the Netherlands include metaliferrous ores, metal scraps, machinery (except electric and electronic), organic chemicals, transport equipment.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Ethanol May Get Declared Good Status, Excise Cut Boost

NEW DELHI: The government is likely to slash the 16% central excise duty on ethanol and classify it as a declared good in a bid to impose a uniform levy on the product across the country. The move aims at incentivising oil companies for doping ethanol with petrol to partly neutralise the impact of rising global crude prices which are at a kissing distance from $100 per barrel. The recently-constituted group of ministers (GoM) on fuel prices is expected to take up the proposal.

“The GoM is expected to consider petroleum ministry’s suggestion to reduce the central excise duty on ethanol for ethanol-blended petrol (EBP) programme, make it a declared good and remove all local fees and duties for inter-state movement,” an official source said.

The duty rationalisation is also needed to have price parity between imported ethanol and domestically-procured ethanol. On an average, oil companies pay Rs 28 per litre for ethanol procured domestically whereas its landed cost at domestic ports is estimated at Rs 21 per litre. Sugar producers in the country are facing a glut in production and a duty cut will help ease the situation as oil companies will be incentivised to increase offtake.

Besides the 16% central excise duty, sales tax on ethanol varies from 4% to 20% in different states. Besides, states levy various surcharges, export fee (from one state to another state), import fee, permit fee, licence fee, administration fee and state excise. For example, Punjab levies a 20% sales tax (plus 2% surcharge on sales tax) and Re 1 per litre import permit fee on ethanol. In Maharastra, sales tax is 4%, in Goa it is 19% and in Tamil Nadu it is 8% (plus 5% surcharge on sales tax).

Commenting on the October 9 decision taken by a GoM, which made a 5% ethanol blending mandatory across the country — except Jammu & Kashmir, north-eastern states and island territories — an official in petroleum ministry said, “The existing 5% EBP programme is subject to commercial viability in procurement of ethanol by oil marketing companies (OMC). If 5% blending of ethanol is to be made mandatory across the country as per the recommendation of the GoM, it is to be ensured that OMCs do not suffer any under-recoveries in selling EBP.”

The October 9 decision has also mandated a 10% blending of ethanol with petrol from October 2007 and the same would be mandatory from October 2008. Oil ministry has argued that OMCs are facing certain constraints with regard to free inter-state movement of ethanol and levy of duties by states. “Therefore, increasing the ratio of 5% to 10% blending optional from October 2007 and thereafter mandatory from October 2008 has to be examined from the point of view of free inter-state movement of ethanol and a conscious decision taken,” an official source said. It is important to note that not all states produce ethanol. Ethanol producing states are Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharastra, Gujarat and Bihar.

New Corporate Law To Minimise Government Interference

NEW DELHI: A new corporate law which seeks to minimise government interference in the functioning of companies while entrusting greater responsibilities to shareholders is in the offing. The ministry of corporate affairs has circulated a draft Cabinet note on the proposed new company law to bring sweeping changes in areas like director board’s constitution and functioning, bankruptcy rules, executive pay and financial statements.

Ministry officials said replacing the half-a-century-old statute with a sophisticated one and bringing a new limited liability partnership (LLP) law are top priority. “We will introduce the LLP Bill in Parliament this winter session and the company law Bill in the Budget session,” a source said.

The proposed new company law will increase disclosure requirements on various aspects and reduce government interference. Sources said the ministry has accepted many of the recommendations made by the J J Irani panel, that include reserving a third of board seats in listed companies for independent directors irrespective of whether the board chairman is a company employee. Contrary to a parliamentary panel’s recommendation, the new law will not impose a restriction on the number of subsidiaries a holding company can have as this is important for business planning.

The complex family trees of corporate houses have been a puzzle for regulators the world over. However, the new law will mandate companies to be transparent about their transactions with subsidiaries. Besides consolidation of parent-subsidiary balance-sheets, an out-of-the-way deal should be disclosed in the financial statements with justification. The new law will also bring more clarity into the contentious issue of direct and indirect control of entities which is important in the context of sectoral FDI ceilings.

The new law would not require public companies to take government approval before raising the strength of its board of directors or its subsidiary’s board beyond 12. The board of directors will also get total freedom to raise the remuneration of directors including managing director against the current requirement of seeking government approval if it is to be raised beyond a limit prescribed in the Companies Act. The new law will also facilitate early detection of financial trouble and facilitate timely turnaround.

Besides, small companies with a paid-up capital or turnover below a threshold will get a special treatment in the new law. They will not be required to follow the norms that will increase compliance cost.

FDI In Food Processing Seen Trebling By '09

NEW DELHI: The government is looking forward to a three-fold increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the food processing sector over the next couple of years.

“FDI in the sector has almost trebled in the past two years, going up to Rs 441 crore in 2007 from Rs 174 crore in 2005. With the growing interest of international retailers in India, this momentum will further increase,” food processing industries minister Subodh Kant Sahay told ET.

If the government’s estimates come true, the FDI inflow into the sector would be Rs 1,300 crore in 2009. The food processing ministry is demanding more incentives for the sector in the 2008 budget, so that more FDI could be attracted.

“We have had initial discussions with the finance ministry and are hopeful of some more incentives this year. Apart from this, one of our key areas will be to initiate training facilities and capacity building efforts for farmers and entrepreneurs,” Mr Sahay said.

The ministry plans to start a nationwide entrepreneurship development programme. “We will establish food processing training centres at the farm gate level all over the country,” the minister said.

The government will also undertake programmes to provide farmers with linkages to the retail market or industrial users. This will lead to elimination of middlemen and result in substantially higher economic gains to the farmers.

“Today, in the absence of any such linkage, farmers are forced to go for distress sale. This would also reduce wastage of fruit and vegetables, estimated to result in losses of Rs 50,000 crore every year,” Mr Sahay said.

As international retailers like Wal-Mart, Carrefour and Woolworth are taking interest in the Indian market, food processing is emerging as one of the fastest growing sectors.

“We have met representations from most of these companies. India is a major attraction for them, not only as a market, but also as the sourcing hub. Most international companies point out at supply chain infrastructure as the biggest hurdle, and we are working on various ways to address it,” Mr Sahay said.

RBI To VC Funds: Show Money Before Registration To Invest In India

MUMBAI: The days of one-dollar companies floated by foreign venture capital (VC) funds to enter India are over. For the first time Reserve Bank of India has spelt out that these funds will get the registration to invest in India only if they chip in a part of the investment upfront.

Till now, the regulator has been insisting on end-use restrictions, which meant foreign funds have to give undertakings that they will not invest in the Indian property market. The condition, which is now being laid down, relates to some credible capital commitment before a formal registration can be obtained.

Typically, a new foreign venture capital fund first forms an investment holding company in Mauritius with rudimentary capital, often not more than a few dollars. The investment company then files for registration with Indian regulators, and once it gets the approval overseas investors are gradually roped in.

While filing for registration they do dislcose their investment strategy, possible investment corpus and the period over which the money will come in. But no foreign investor actually signs a cheque till the Mauritius company gets officially recognised by Indian authorities as a VC fund in India.

“RBI is asking us to disclose the capital base, something which it has never done in the past. Perhaps, it wants some credible investment commitment, in the sense that a part of the proposed investment should lie in a Mauritius bank before registration is granted,” said an advisor to several foreign funds.

The central bank, which has the final say on all cross-border flows, may be driven by the urgency to curb inflows; however, it’s equally possible that RBI may have had some bad experience with new funds and is keen to ensure that the commitment is genuine and credible. More so, because a registration once granted can be used indefinitely and no periodic renewals are required. Any fund is required to first apply to the capital market regulator Sebi, which then refers the application to RBI.

However, the new condition being insisted by RBI may discourage many foreign investors who are unwilling to park money unless the investment vehicle gets regulatory approval, said Punit Shah, who heads the financial services group of global consultancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

Several foreign investors find VC funds comparatively more attractive than the customary foreign direct investment (FDI) channel (either through the automatic route or via the Foreign Investment Promotion Board). Among other things, a foreign VC fund buying a stake in an unlisted company can pay below the fair value of the shares; besides, the lock-in norm is diluted for a foreign VC fund which is already holding shares in a local firm for a year. A normal investment vehicle set up in Mauritius to make FDI in India don’t have these flexibilities.

Rupee At 39.39 Against US Dollar

The rupee on November 21 ended three paise weaker at 39.39/40 against the US currency due to a meltdown in equity markets amid fears of capital outflows and weak dollar overseas. In fairly active trade at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (forex) market, the local currency traded in a range of 39.35 and 39.42 after resuming steady at 39.36/37 against a dollar from overnight close.

Equity markets continued to influence the rupee movements throughout as the benchmark Sensex gradually moved downwards after opening weak and ended with a hefty fall of 678 points.

Oil prices came within striking distance of the $100 psychologically crucial level during early Asian trade. Meanwhile, traders anticipated good dollar demand from oil corporates in the near future as the crude prices moved to a new record high, commented a dealer.Traders also expected continued capital outflow for the short term. Foreign portfolio investments was the principal factor the rupee''s sharp surge so far in the year.

The Reserve Bank of India fixed the reference rate for the US currency at Rs 39.39 per dollar and for the single European unit at Rs 58.49 per Euro.The rupee premium on forward dollar ended slightly better on fresh paying pressure from banks and corporates. In cross-currency trades, the local currency recovered against the British sterling while declined against the Euro and the Japanese Yen.

The rupee recouped against the Sterling to finish the day at Rs 81.02/04 per pound from previous close of Rs 81.20/22 per pound while eased against the single European currency to Rs 58.25/27 per euro from overnight close of Rs 58.15/17 per euro.The Indian unit dropped sharply against the Japanese yen to close at Rs 36.30/32 per 100 Yen from last close of Rs 35.66/68 per 100 Yen.

Rupee At 39.36 Against US Dollar

The rupee stayed under pressure due to weakness in Asian equity markets and ended marginally lower at 39.36/37 against the greenback amid weak dollar overseas and a slowdown in capital inflows. In active trade at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (forex) market, the local currency moved in a range of 39.33 and 39.45 during the day after resuming weak at 39.42/44 per dollar from previous close of 39.34/35 per dollar.

The rupee was largely influenced by volatile movements in local equity markets, forex dealers said. Forex dealers attributed the currency''s bounce from initial lows to a stocks rally before the midsession. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) withdrawals, though in small quantity, in the last couple of days also weighed on the rupee sentiment.

Dollar remained weak in global markets in the light of concerns of widening impact of credit crisis on the US economy after Glodman Sachs downgraded Citigroup shares, forecasting more write-downs by the bank as a result of mortgage losses.Meanwhile, traders expected the rupee to remain stronger against dollar in the near future. The Reserve Bank of India fixed the reference rate for the US currency at Rs 39.34 per dollar and for the single European unit at Rs 57.71 per euro. The rupee premium on forward dollar held steady.The benchmark six-month forward dollar premiums payable in April ended steady at overnight level of 28 - 29-1/2 paise and the far-forwards maturing in October also ended stable at 46 - 48 paise.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Restructure Credit Policy To Uplift Weaker Sections

Easing credit constraints for the poorest and the weakest must be a priority to reinforce and sustain their health status.

The government is, ostensibly, ensuring that credit priority, as spelt out and implemented by RBI, is aimed at precisely this. Credit is a key input into agriculture & allied activities and for many small and micro enterprises run by the section that forms the country’s 30-crore unorganised workforce.

Ensuring that access to constraint-free and timely credit is widespread and functioning efficiently in the rural areas becomes urgent against the new economic policies that destabilise their existing modes of livelihood, including widespread acquisition of arable land for SEZs and liberalisation of the retail sector in food.

As crucial would be professional advise on new investments to ease the rigours of a livelihood switchover by building an effective social security net, since the in-depth impact of such policy-inspired livelihood destabilisation would only be visible over a period of time.

Arjun Sengupta-led National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector (NCEUS), which submitted its report to PM Manmohan Singh recently, has delivered a scathing indictment of the RBI’s priority sector lending policy (PSLP) commitment to weaker section credit.

Here is an unwittingly state-sponsored, kid gloves-off critique of a deliberately lopsided policy, which has been designed, not by branch managers and loan officials, but by the decisionmakers at the top of RBI to benefit what could only be a travesty of the phrase ‘weaker sections’, NCEUS has asserted.

Stopping just short of calling it a sham in terms of virtually every fundamental count, it has criticised recent policy changes that have shortened the period for declaring a loan an NPA, which can spell death knell to many one-person enterprises in the unorganised sector.

A tawdry application of the mind is evident in RBI’s own PSLP, which has set a target of 40% of the adjusted net banking credit (ANBC) for priority sector lending by banks. Of the 40%, 18% target has been set for agriculture and another 10% has been set for weaker sections.

The fault, NCEUS has charged, lies with RBI credit policymakers, who refused to reduce the 40% (of ANBC) target set for priority sector lending despite the difficulties of banks in achieving it and attendant Narasimham Committee recommendations, mainly due to political compulsions.

What the authorities did, instead, was to ”nullify, through the back door, the operational relevance of the priority sector target by including many items, which can be conceived of as belonging to the weaker section borrowal of small loans who would not possess other bankable projects and who would otherwise face difficulty in getting bank credit...” They diluted the definition of priority sector to suit the achievement of statistical targets.

Diversion of unachieved disbursals under to NABARD’s RIDF and SIDBI have helped banks show lending target achievements for the priority sector on paper. Quoting RBI’s latest report on trend and progress of banking in India 2004-05, NCEUS has pointed out that it “speaks volumes of the extent to which coverage under PS lending has increasingly moved away from the original intentions of the programme”.

Banks, the panel report points out, are not interested in making advances to unorganised sector borrowers in the absence of collateral, irrespective of what RBI guidelines say. They openly subvert and ignore guidelines that say no collateral for loans up to Rs 5 lakh.

According to Rural Finance Access Survey of WB and NCAER (2003), a majority of the loan extended by commercial banks, RRBs and cooperative banks are collateralised with 89% of the households surveyed who borrowed from RRBs and 87% who borrowed from commercial banks, reporting that they had to provide collateral.

Also, small borrowers are forced to compete with small and large borrowers since the credit system operates under the existing RBI guidelines. RBI’s PSL guidelines of April 30, 2007, prove, NCEUS has said, that in the agri sector, too, the small or poor farmer has to compete with large and strong borrowers such as corporate houses, traders and institutions. In 2003-04, 70% of the total priority sector credit for agriculture from scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) went to the relative fat cats.

Small and marginal farmers — although they account for 83.9% of the total farmer households and operate in 43% of the total farmland — received only 30% of credit to agriculture.

In that year, SCBs advanced about Rs 96,000 crore to the agri sector. Of this, marginal farmers received only Rs 15,000 crore and small farmers only about Rs 14,000 crore. What’s worse is that the percentage break-up in credit to different segments of cultivators in agriculture has remained the same since 2000-01.

Ditto situation pertains to the education and housing sectors. “Here, again, it is evident that due to dilution of PSL policy, the poor are competing with comparatively stronger claimants. Such a PSL guideline has made a mockery of the weaker sections,” NCEUS has held.

Nor have interest rates for the weaker sections been lower and easier in practice. On paper, the rate of interest on agri credit up to Rs 3 lakh is 7% and unorganised enterprises have to pay an interest of 9.5% (2% lower than PLR). However, a plethora of service charges levied by banks hike the total cost by another 2%.

This, even while large industries often have to pay an interest rate lower than PLR on account of “better credit worthiness”.

These costs become so high that in spite of comparatively lower rates charged by formal institutions, they work out often higher or equal to the informal rate. Hence, asserts the commission, small borrowers prefer informal channels (money lenders, etc) since they take on the spot decisions.

Poor institutional infrastructure available for credit has made the matter worse. Add to that the loss of momentum in distribution of bank credit to small borrowers from 21.2 million additional bank accounts by SCBs, of which 93.1% were accounts with Rs 10,000 or less of credit limits in the 1970s.

Between March 1992 and March 2001, there has been an absolute decline of about 13.5 million in aggregate bank accounts due to a much larger decline of 25.3 million accounts for the redefined small borrowal accounts of Rs 25,000 or less.

In recent years, the number of commercial bank branches in rural areas declined from 35,134 in March 1991 to 30,572 in March 2006. Many vacancies remain unfilled in rural areas and new-generation banks have been hiring employees on contract. “These unhealthy practices could prove to be counterproductive to the long-term credibility of banking institutions,” NCEUS warns.

Intelligent System To Take Toll On The Fly

NEW DELHI: You may not have to stop at every toll junction to pay charges. You could be able to pay toll even while driving at 100 km an hour. The government is planning to frame a policy for intelligent transport system (ITS) that will allow cars to be fitted with onboard unit for deduction of toll charges and various other taxes through credit card.

The other systems being considered under ITS are providing real time data on traffic and routes to the driver. Travellers will also be able to save on time or switch transport modes as per their convenience. They would also be able to pay for parking without cash.

Top officials from ministry of information technology and telecom, urban development ministry, ministry of science, health, ministry of heavy industries, finance ministry and home ministry had a meeting on October 12 to prepare the guidelines for the proposed ITS policy.

The ministries are together working on single emergency management services where police, fire service, ambulance and accident services can be reached at a single number.

“The core group comprising senior officials from all the ministries would frame a model policy and circulate it among all the states for its implementation. If implemented in a time-bound manner, the policy can bring a sea change in traffic management on Indian roads. Increase in the average speed of vehicles maintain all safety disciplines simultaneously would be the greatest advantage of the policy,” a senior government official associated with the framing of ITS told ET.

According to sources, the ITS can also be used in emission based speed enforcement which is based on automated speed enforcement technologies. “The goal is not to avoid speeding as such, but to reduce emissions by improving the flow of traffic, avoiding the stop-and-go dynamics that can raise large variations in vehicle speeds and maintaining traffic speeds within a range at which emissions on a gram per km basis are lowest,” the official added.

The officials have had several rounds of talks with policy makers of countries like Japan, South Korea, Singapore, China and the US. Hong Kong has arguably some of the most diverse public transport options on offer.

The densely populated, bustling region is extremely well connected through metro lines, buses, ferries, tram. To assist people make choices based on individual priorities of speed, modes and cost, the Hong Kong government has developed a Web-based multimodal public transport query system called EasyGo. It is a bilingual system and helps travellers find optimal travelling routes for users in terms of fewer transfer modes, shortest travelling time and lowest fare.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Free Trade Talks May Not Make Headway At East Asia Meet

NEW DELHI: Negotiations on the India-Asean free trade agreement (FTA) are unlikely to witness any progress at the third East Asia Summit (EAS) beginning next week in Singapore. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who will represent India at the summit, has been briefed by the commerce department on the current impasse in negotiations.

The main area of differences between the two sides is the degree of market access being offered by India on four agriculture products including palm oil. Sources said that there was very little which could happen at the EAS on the bilateral pact at this juncture other than a declaration by both sides on their intention to conclude the negotiations as early as possible.

At the second EAS in Philippines in January this year, it was being hoped that the negotiations on the FTA between India and Asean would be wrapped up by the next summit in November. Although things progressed steadily with the finalisation of sensitive list of items from both sides, the talks got stuck over the issue of market access for palm oil, pepper, coffee and tea.

While India has already agreed to bring down duties on all four products to 50% from the levels existing at the time when negotiations began, Asean wants more. It has demanded that India should bring down custom duties on palm oil to 30% and on tea, coffee and pepper to 20%.Speaking to ET, sources said that India had offered as much market access in the four sensitive products as it could, and it was not possible to budge further.Even if India agrees to go a little further, it would be impossible to open up to the extent the Asean members want. “We have our farmers to protect. How can we forget about their interests in order to get a pact off the ground,” the source said.

The East Asia Summit members comprise the Asean + 3 countries (which includes the then Asean members and China, Japan & South Korea), India, Australia and New Zealand. The third summit is scheduled to begin on November 21.

The framework for a comprehensive economic cooperation agreement (CECA) between India and Asean was signed way back in October 2003 during the second Asean-India summit. The idea was to move towards a free trade regime for trade in goods, services and investment. The Asean, however, insisted that a trade pact for goods should be signed first following which negotiations on services and investments should begin.

Land Acquisition For Tamil Nadu Sezs Under Fire

CHENNAI: Tamil Nadu, which has been promoting special economic zones (SEZs) since the 1950s, has switched to damage-control mode after allegations of farmland acquisition through unlawful and devious means.

The state's Information Commission has pulled up the industries department for denying information under the Right to Information Act 2005 about land acquisition for industry. This was followed by media reports in Nakeeran magazine about land scams.

Soon after, the DMK government removed its powerful industry secretary Shaktikanta Das from his post. It also transferred other top officials, including Hans Raj Verma, chairman of the Tamil Nadu Electricity Board, who have been accused of involvement in the scam.

The state then went public with a new industrial policy, announcing plans to build a land bank of 10,000 acres.

In its new policy, the state government said that 10 percent of the area in new industrial parks promoted by the State Industries Promotion Corp of Tamil Nadu (SIPCOT) and the Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corp (TIDCO) would be set apart for social infrastructure.

But accusations still continue to fly thick and fast.

DMK ally PMK has criticised the government's land use guidelines in the new policy. PMK leader S. Ramadoss said: "Overall, the (industrial) policy appears to favour MNCs and large industries, with a bias towards land-based industrial parks and SEZ development suited to highly skilled workers and not aimed at gainful employment and dignified livelihood for Tamil Nadu's vast less-skilled workforce."

For the past year or so, Corporate Accountability Desk (CAD) - The Other Media, an NGO, has been researching the status of SEZs in the state. It has accused the state government of persistently following a policy of turning rich farmland into fallow land, so that it could be handed over to industry.

It cited examples in Kancheepuram district of how land near waterways was acquired in the higher reaches and the flow blocked off so that land downstream became fallow.

The revenue department then stopped collecting taxes from the target agricultural land to prove it was uncultivable.

The NGO also said that in Oragadam, on Chennai's western outskirts, and in Cuddalore, new land registration by people was discouraged from the 1990s.

"As a result, people had to sell their land only to the government, which bought and thus acquired huge tracts for SEZs here at very low costs," the NGO stated.

"Village officers across the state are playing brokers," alleged Madhumita Dutta, coordinator, CAD. The government has told the CAD that 55 SEZs have been approved in Tamil Nadu, holding 32,235 acres of land. Besides, proposals are pending for another 13 SEZs.

But Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi has denied allegations that farmland is being acquired for SEZs.

He informed the state assembly that only 345 acres out of the 10,000 acres that the Tatas need for their titanium project in Tuticorin district was farmland and the rest was fallow.

In August 2006, CAD activist Nityanand Jayaraman had filed an RTI application, seeking information on Tatas' titanium project but met with a blank wall.

In December last year, Dutta moved another RTI application, seeking detailed information on 36 SEZs in Tamil Nadu. She also sought to inspect relevant documents under Section 5 of the Act. She again got no reply.

The Tamil Nadu State Information Commission then took up the matter and, after two hearings, reprimanded the industries department for denying information. CAD has since urged the commission to invoke Sec 18 (3) of the RTI Act, which gives it the powers of a civil court and investigate the matter further.

India's Sept Industrial Output Seen Up 9.9%

NEW DELHI: India's industrial output in September is forecast to have grown 9.9 per cent from a year earlier, easing from the previous month and adding to expectations that official interest rates have peaked.

The median forecast of 10 analysts in a poll put annual growth below the robust 10.7 percent in August.

"Manufacturing should be strong but it will be slower than (the) previous year. I expect growth to be in this region as the festival season kicks in," said Riyaz Khan, economist with the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.

Policy makers expect a spate of Hindu and Muslim festivals to boost demand into the end of the year, as people traditionally splurge on consumer goods at this time. So far, growth has been dampened by a series of interest rate rises which have slowed demand for automobiles, real estate and some consumer durables.

Automobile sales between April and October fell 5 percent to 5.6 million units, as high interest rates hit demand for motorcycles and commercial vehicles, data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers showed.

The central bank has raised interest rates five times since June last year, bumping up those on vehicle loans by 250-350 basis points. Further, the rupee has risen 12.5 percent against the dollar this year, more than any other Asian currency, putting pressure on exports and weighing on the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 15 percent of gross domestic product.

The central bank and the government expect economic growth to moderate to 8.5 per cent in 2007/08 from 9.4 percent in 2006/07. The following table shows forecasts for September industrial output.

India Heading For 9 Per Cent Growth: Chidambaram

COLOMBO: India is heading for a nine per cent growth this year on top of buoyant investments and domestic environment, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said here.

"Aggregate efficiency of both capital and labour and the 35 per cent investment in proportion to the GDP ratio quiet easily translates to about 9 per cent growth," Chidambaram said here.

The Finance Minister, who was replying to questions after delivering the annual Lakshman Kadirgamar Lecture here yesterday, attributed the high foreign exchange reserves of over 250 billion dollars to high capital inflows.

"Capital inflows are very large that is why we have a high foreign exchange reserves," he said.

"If the level of investment in any country is 35 per cent and the country can make gains with capital and labour. I think it is reasonable conclusion that that country will witness very high growth," Chidambaram remarked.

When asked about the "secret mantra" behind the high economic growth being registered by India during the last few years, Chidambaram said "there is no secret to growth. Sound macro economic policies followed anywhere in the world will lead to high growths".

"India's growth is led by investment and domestic environment. In fact in the last four years, investment is a prime driver of growth and domestic demand and consumption is a close second. Our investment to GDP ratio is now little over 35 per cent," he said.

According to official estimates, the economy registered a growth rate of 9.3 per cent during the first quarter of FY 2007.

India A Middle Income Country By 2015: FM

Finance Minister P Chidambaram has said that he expects the country''s per capita income to touch $4,000 by 2025, shattering all forecasts by global economic analysts.A BRIC report has forecast India''s per capita income would touch $800 by 2010 and $1,149 by 2015. But we have exploded this assumption as our per capita income has already touched $1,000 this year and expect it to touch $4,000 by 2025, FM said.

Today one cannot get a farm labourer for below Rs 80, carpenter won''t be available for less than Rs 150 and a senior mason will charge Rs 200. People are demanding and getting more. This aspiration is driving consumption which will make India a middle income country in next 15-20 years, said Finance Minister. Chidambaram said that assumptions on Indian cell phone market given in a book had already been proved wrong by consumers.

It has been said that India''s cell phone usage will not double to 400 million users from 200 million very easily. This assumption has been blown to pieces. We are adding 60 million users annually, he said.India is a fast changing market driven by people''s aspirations to lead a better life and move up the ladder. This aspiration is breaking down class and caste barriers, he said. India is a fast changing market, which cannot be captured in a series of articles, essays or books. By the time a book is written, edited and published much of what has been written would become outdated. This makes India an exciting place to be in, the Finance Minister said.According to him, markets will move faster than trade analysts and Vice-Presidents of Marketing of large companies to comprehend.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Germany Confident Of $20 Billion Trade With India By 2012

KOLKATA: Given the current trend in India’s growth trajectory, it would not be difficult to achieve the target of raising bilateral trade to $20 billion by 2012, the director-general for Asian and Pacific affairs, federal foreign office of German government, Hans-Henning Blomeyer-Bartenstein, said.

Speaking at a symposium on Indo-German collaborations, organised by Indian Chamber of Commerce, Mr Bartenstein indicated that given the current dynamism of the Indian economy, Germany is interested in investing in transport, infrastructure development, renewable energy, efficient management of energy and environment, science and technology in collaboration with Indian partners.

Already, the fora on Indo-German Energy and Indo-German Environment are trying to explore possibilities of joint collaboration in generation of renewable energy, particularly solar and wind power-driven energy and other projects relating to efficient management of energy to cut down on pollution. “Such initiatives will be further strengthened in the coming months,” said Mr Bartenstein.

In the first six months of 2007, bilateral trade between the two nations has touched a record $7.62 billion, up by 15.63% over the corresponding period last year.

India’s exports to Germany during January-June, 2007, has increased 12.64% to $3.2 billion and imports from Germany by 17.86% to $4.44 billion. Among foreign investors in India, Germany ranks 6th with total investment of $1.7 billion.

Japanese FDI Likely To Touch $5 Bn In 3 Years

India has expressed optimism on Japanese investment in the country to touch $5 billion by 2010, according to department of industrial promotion and policy (DIPP). Addressing a seminar on ''Doing business in Japan'' organised by Ficci, Mr Thade said Japanese FDI is expected to flow into four sectors-automobiles, auto components, chemicals and infrastructure. The DIPP director said from July 1991 to July 2007, Japan''s cumulative FDI inflow into India is to the tune of $2,585 million, which is only 5% of the total FDI flow of $60.2 billion into India since July 1991. Mr Thade pointed out that the balance of trade was in favour of Japan, which is the 13th largest trading partner of India. A closer look at the Japanese investment pattern over the last decade and a half reveals that Japanese companies invested in countries of Asean and China for the purpose of re-exports to Japan. This clearly indicates that trade and investment are interlinked. Strengthening India''s relationship with Japan is a matter of high priority for us, he said. Mr Thade''s comments come at a time when the Japanese automobile majors like Suzuki, Toyota and Honda are working on plans to increase their exposure in the Indian market.

Naoyoshi Noguchi, director general of Japan External Trade Organisation (Jetro), who was also present at the meeting, indicated that a leading Japanese consumer electronics company, which had shut down its manufacturing facility in India, may again reconsider setting up its production facility in the country.